ETH surged thanks to stablecoins, AI, and institutional bets.

Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the short term holder's basis cost at $108,000. Meanwhile, the macro outlook remains positive in the medium term, with 90% of market expectations predicting that the Federal Reserve of America (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September.

In the coming weeks, the U.S. Treasury's borrowing will reduce dollar liquidity and put pressure on risky assets. This pressure could cause BTC to adjust to $100,000. Will this adjustment create an opportunity for Ethereum (ETH) to show strength or will it also face downward pressure?

Why the driving factors for ETH do not trigger an immediate recovery?

Wall Street strategist and Fundstrat's Chief Investment Officer, Tom Lee, predicts that ETH will reach $12,000 by the end of the year. He calls Ethereum the "largest macro trade of the decade." The three main factors that Lee emphasizes are stablecoins, AI, and institutional demand. Recently, the total supply of stablecoins on Ethereum surpassed $160 billion, marking an all-time high.

The amount of assets that crypto treasury companies are buying in | Source: BlockworksAnother factor that may drive positive sentiment towards ETH is acceptance from institutions. According to an analysis from an interview with Tom Lee, Ethereum is expected to become the foundational layer of global finance and artificial intelligence (AI).

Data from crypto fund management companies shows that the purchase volume of ETH has increased significantly since the first week of June. In fact, in recent weeks, ETH has accounted for a large portion of the purchase transactions of companies in August.

If this trend continues, it may lead to a price recovery.

Why is September often the "stumble" month for holders of ETH?

Source: BarchartHowever, past trends show that September is not very friendly to ETH. Since 2017, this asset has often recorded negative returns or only slightly positive in September. In contrast, the last quarter of the year usually brings rewards to holders.

Source: EljaIn a post, user Elja pointed out how ETH could reach $6,000 by the end of 2025. Based on historical data, the average trajectory indicates that ETH may begin a rally by the end of the year, but it is not certain that this will happen immediately.

However, even with positive driving factors, investors still need to consider seasonal hindering factors. In the coming weeks, it is clear that patience is the wiser trading option.

Dinh Dinh