Tonight at 3 a.m. Beijing time, the Federal Reserve is set to make its move again——the interest rate is highly likely to be cut from 4.00% to 3.75%.

Looking back at the previous two rate cuts, it’s clear: as long as the outcome is within market expectations, the price at which the cut is implemented is essentially the short-term ceiling.

In simple terms: once the cut is announced, the market will likely peak in the short term.

What you should be nervous about now isn’t the Federal Reserve, but rather how heavy your position is.