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Arnau4Bet
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If you thought that BTC would reach 150,000$ this cycle....
At $126,000 you had a +18% if it arrived.
- At the lows of $80,000 a +85%.
- Today a +64%.
I call that opportunity.
No one wants to buy opportunities, only certainties.
BTC-0.33%
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According to the new analysis by JP Morgan, the SP500 will reach $7,500 by the end of 2026.
This would be very positive for bitcoin, crypto, and the rest of the markets.
In this analysis, they also answer the question "Are stocks too expensive?"
This is JP Morgan's response:
"First, companies are making a lot of money. They have been growing over 10% in profits for an entire year. Moreover, these earnings are the primary drivers of the increases in the U.S. market compared to other global markets.
And all of this is happening in a complicated environment: interest rates above 4% for three
BTC-0.33%
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My thesis on Bitcoin: We will see a bounce back that could take us to $97,000-$100,000.
Although there are two possible paths:
1. Correction before uploading
Retracement to $84,000-$83,000 (zone 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci) to build a floor structure and then attack $93,000-$97,000.
2. Direct impulse
Break the previous high from here and go straight to $93,000 without prior correction.
There is a lot of short liquidity waiting above $97,000 acting like a magnet.
BTC-0.33%
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Check the liquidation map.
There is practically no liquidity below. Everything has been absorbed during the drop.
But there is a lot of gasoline accumulated above.
First zone: $89,000-$92,000.
Second zone: $95,000-$98,000.
The rebound could continue straight up. Or it could pull back to $82,000-$84,000 before then attacking the upper zones with more strength.
Both scenarios are valid. But the liquidity is clear: everything points upwards.
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Stop trying to buy the bottoms ❌
Ask yourself this question:
How much do I think "X" will be worth in 5/12 months?
Accumulate and sell according to your analysis.
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Bitcoin is falling toward the True Market Mean (blue line).
Historically, every time the price touches this line, significant market bottoms are formed. In 2018 and 2022, we marked lows exactly there.
The AVIV Ratio (upper yellow line) is turning down from highs. This indicates we are entering a zone of maximum pain and capitulation.
When the price touches the True Market Mean with the AVIV Ratio dropping from these levels, macro bottoms have historically formed.
We are at the last support before losing the structure completely.
BTC-0.33%
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Pay close attention to this.
Liquidations are COMPLETELY unbalanced:
If Bitcoin drops to 71K, $860 million will be liquidated. If it rises to 100K, $10 BILLION will be liquidated.
BTC-0.33%
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First snowfall, time to put snow tires on my cars ❄️☃️
Winter is my favorite season, it boosts my focus.
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The most important reason for the drops, the rate cuts...
Sometimes everything is simpler than it seems. And they have just shot up 👇
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Bitcoin is falling, absorbing all the liquidity along the way without forming a bottom.
Below there are many long liquidations between $85,000-$88,000.
But above: an outrageous amount of shorts accumulated.
A bounce towards $98,000-$101,000 could occur imminently.
BTC-0.33%
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When the CNN index falls to 9 (extreme panic), a month later the market/sp500 is positive 79% of the time.
The average return one month later: +1.67%.
Extreme fear can mark temporary bottoms.
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A great crypto founder has sold all his cryptocurrencies.
This is what you need to know:
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I am one of the few bullish that are left.
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BITCOIN ANALYSIS $BTC 👇
We remain below concerning levels. Levels that would be key to recover during this week.
$98,200 is the level we should NOT lose. Anything that happens below that price is not a good sign.
For now, below $98,200 we have seen a slowdown. Bearish strength has been lost, but bullish strength has not recovered in any timeframe.
What do we need to see?
That Bitcoin reaches some level of support and from there finds strength. It could be in the zone of $90k-$91,500 where we finally start to see that necessary strength.
A movement that first recovers $98,200 and then the psyc
BTC-0.33%
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Bitcoin has just formed the death cross.
The last three times this occurred, the price of BTC skyrocketed in the following months.
Although, in theory, when this happens it is bearish. But history says otherwise.
This death cross doesn't mean anything to me. I don't like it.
BTC-0.33%
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Bitcoin has just formed the death cross.
The last three times this happened, the price of BTC skyrocketed in the following months.
But, only 50% of the time this happens, the market is positive after a year. So this death cross doesn't tell us much.
BTC-0.33%
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If Bitcoin rises to 115k, $15 trillion in shorts will be liquidated.
It would be max pain for the bears.
BTC-0.33%
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This seems very curious to me.
When the fear index is below 20 (extreme panic), the average performance of Bitcoin is:
After 1 week: +5.2%
1 month: +19.9%
3 months: +62.4%
6 months: +48.5%
BTC-0.33%
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Bitcoin has lost the moving average. This signal is bearish.
If we project with the previous correction when this average was lost, it would send us to almost $70k.
Honestly, as of today, I don't think this scenario will happen. But we will have to stay alert.
BTC-0.33%
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Are we entering a bearish market?
Lately, I am seeing charts like this, which project that we have entered a bearish market and will see more declines.
Many say that the cycle has already ended. That we are at the beginning of a bearish market.
My opinion? No.
I think we are in a correction within a bullish market.
But I have to be honest. I don't feel that comfortable. We have lost $98k, a key level for me. And every day that goes by below that price without seeing strength, without seeing recovery, I'm going to become more conservative.
The level of $98k is my alert. If we don't
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