Foresight Ventures Weekly Market Report: The Calm Before the Storm

A. Market View

1. Macro liquidity

Currency liquidity has tightened. Inflationary pressures in the United States still exist, and expectations for European and American central banks to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time continue to heat up. The Fed minutes were hawkish, suggesting that interest rates will continue to be raised in September, and the October U.S. bond yield hit a new high since 2008. The U.S. dollar index started to rebound, which will suppress all risk asset prices. The weekly level of US stocks fell. The encryption market followed the weak performance of US stocks.

Second, the whole market

The top 100 gainers by market capitalization:

The market continued to be weak this week. Altcoins have generally fallen, from the initial public chain, Defi (RWA), to later games, meme, almost all sectors have rotated once. Centralized exchanges lack liquidity and repeatedly squeeze short tickets. On the other hand, the summer boom on the chain continues to hit new highs, mainly including selected on-chain tokens such as RLB, UNIBOT, BITCOIN (Harry Potter), and OX. Market hotspots revolve around meme coins.

1. RUNE: THORChain is a cross-chain Defi based on the Cosmos ecology. It has recently launched a lending business and has become a deflationary model. THORChain was more active in the last round of bull market, because its economic model comes with triple leverage, which boosts ups and downs.
2. MC: The game guild industry is close to bottoming out. The market value of Merit Circle in full circulation is about 200 million U.S. dollars, but the disposable treasury is about 100 million U.S. dollars, and the release of chips is nearing completion, with a high margin of safety. Recently, YGG's short-squeeze surged on the same track, which aroused the market's attention.
3. BITCOIN (HarryPotter): The leader of the meme on the chain, and the stalk of the same name on BTC. The operation of the project party is relatively evil, and it was once washed to almost zero. It is currently the 6th meme currency with the largest market value.

3. BTC market

1) Data on the chain

BTC markets continue to trade within historically low volatility ranges. In fact most BTC traders are still underwater. The current short-term trader's cost over six months is $28,600, and the long-term trader's cost is much lower at $20,300. It is expected that the BTC market will mainly fluctuate sideways in this range in the short term.

Stablecoins continue to flow out. The USDT market value has rarely dropped by 500 million U.S. dollars. It shows that more funds, especially those of American investors, are still leaving the market, and the market is still not optimistic enough.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the index is greater than 6, it is the top interval; when the index is less than 2, it is the bottom interval. MVRV fell below the key level 1, and holders are overall in the red. The current indicator is 0.61, entering the recovery phase.

2) Futures Quotes

Futures funding rate: This week's rate is on the high side. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is more, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, and the short leverage is more, which is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures open interest: The total open interest increased slightly this week.

Futures long-short ratio: 2.3. The market has a strong intention to buy bottoms. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a reverse indicator, below 0.7 is more panic, and above 2.0 is more greedy. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3) Spot Market

This week, the BTC daily line broke and fell. Last week, the US SEC did not approve the BTC spot ETF, the rebound failed to hit a new high, and the market continued to decline. Volatility has fallen to historically low levels, and volatility compression is usually followed by huge price shocks. In the short term, the market will most likely adjust following the U.S. stock market before the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in September. This will be a good time to get on the bus before the bull market.

B. Market Data

1. The total lock-up amount of the public chain

2. TVL ratio of each public chain

This week, the overall TVL fell by 1.9 b, a drop of 4.6%. In recent weeks, the total TVL has fluctuated at the bottom, and there is no upward trend. The proportion of ETH chain this week was basically the same as last week, with a slight increase of 0.6%. The TVL of all Layer 2 public chains are all falling, among which Arbitrum fell by 8.1%, and Optimisim fell by 8.7%, the largest. Overall, only Solana did not fall, an increase of nearly 0.1%. The TVL of the Base chain has risen by 7% today, and the increase rate has been 222% in the past 7 days.

3. The lock-up amount of each chain agreement

1) ETH lock-up amount

2) BSC lock-up amount

3) Polygon lock-up amount

4) Arbitrum lock-up amount

5) Optimism Lockup Amount

4. History of ETH Gas fee

The current on-chain transfer fee is about $1.28, the Uniswap transaction fee is about $11.23, and the Opensea transaction fee is about $4.36. This week’s Gas level remained the same as last week, with almost no change. Gas has hardly fluctuated significantly in recent weeks, and the market lacks activity. From the perspective of gas consumption, Uniswap occupies the top position.

Five, NFT market data changes

1) NFT-500 Index:

2) NFT market conditions:

3) NFT trading market share:

4) Analysis of NFT buyers:

The floor prices of blue-chip projects are basically falling this week, and today only BAYC has a slight 1% rise. In the medium and long term, the floor prices of blue-chip NFTs have fallen precipitously in the past 90 days, and many of them have fallen by more than 50%. The volume of the overall NFT market is shrinking. Judging from the active wallet addresses of new and old NFT buyers, both new and old users are declining, and there will be a big challenge if there is no inflow of new users.

Six, the latest financing situation of the project

About Foresight Ventures

Foresight Ventures bets on the innovation of cryptocurrency in the next few decades. It manages multiple funds: VC fund, secondary active management fund, multi-strategy FOF, special purpose S fund "Foresight Secondary Fund l", with a total asset management scale of more than 4 One hundred million U.S. dollars. Foresight Ventures adheres to the concept of "Unique, Independent, Aggressive, Long-term" and provides extensive support for projects through strong ecological forces. Its team comes from senior personnel from top financial and technology companies including Sequoia China, CICC, Google, Bitmain, etc.