Market Strategy Tips (April 1st, from yesterday to today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (April 1st), the market experienced a strong rebound driven by a triple effect: expectations of easing in Middle East conflicts, cooling concerns about stagflation, and concentrated technical buying. The crypto market simultaneously stabilized after declines and rebounded with reduced volume, with high volatility retreating.
Macro News

Core Macro Themes: Geopolitical easing + falling oil prices, slight recovery in rate cut expectations

Clear signs of easing in Middle East tensions: Iranian president expressed willingness to end the war, and Trump stated “the Iran conflict will end within 2-3 weeks,” quickly cooling risk aversion.
Brent crude oil dropped from a high of $112 to around $104, significantly easing stagflation fears, and market pricing for “longer-lasting rate hikes” loosened considerably.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell back to 4.31%, the dollar index plummeted 0.7% and broke below 106, temporarily easing pressure on gold and risk assets.
Dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials increased, with the June rate cut expectation slightly rising to 18%. Markets await further guidance from Friday’s core PCE and non-farm payroll data.

Gold: Dominated by violent surge, technical correction + short covering

Spot gold surged over $150 early yesterday morning, breaking through $4,660 and $4,700 levels, with a high of $4,722, nearly a 4% intraday gain.
Main drivers of the rebound:
Technical oversold bounce: After the sharp decline in March, RSI/KDJ entered deep oversold territory, triggering concentrated buy orders at the support zone of $4,400-$4,420.
Short covering wave: Large short positions were profit-taken and forced to close, creating bullish momentum.
Central bank gold purchases as support: Global central banks net bought 215 tons of gold in Q1, with emerging market central banks like Guatemala and Indonesia continuing to increase holdings.

Key levels: Support at $4,600-$4,650, resistance at $4,750-$4,800.
Medium- to long-term constraints remain: Gold ETFs saw a net outflow of nearly $11 billion in March, and the Fed’s high-interest-rate policy has not substantially shifted.

Crypto Market: Stabilizing after decline, volume contraction, increased institutional competition

Bitcoin rebounded from a low of $65,997 to above $67,000, with a daily high of $69,000, while major altcoins also saw slight rebounds.
Market sentiment divergence:
BTC spot ETF saw slight net inflow (Fidelity FBTC net inflow of $44 million), but Grayscale GBTC experienced a net outflow of $303 million, indicating a stockpile game.
On-chain: Exchange BTC net outflow of 11,800 coins, with clear signs of whales accumulating below $66,000, and increasing number of addresses holding thousands of coins.

Sentiment and Technicals: Fear and Greed Index rebounded to 22 (Fear), indicating significant selling pressure easing; daily MACD shows a bullish crossover, RSI recovers from oversold zone, but the $70,000 level remains a strong resistance.

Special Reminders

Gold: In the short term, the strong rebound is driven by oversold correction and short covering, not a trend reversal for bulls. Resistance at $4,750-$4,800 is very strong; avoid blindly chasing highs. Recommended to buy on dips with small positions, strictly stop-loss at $4,600; if geopolitical sentiment fluctuates or U.S. Treasury yields rise again, beware of sharp pullbacks and profit-taking risks.
Crypto Market: The short-term key support is at $66,000. Despite whale accumulation providing some support, the rebound volume is weak and sentiment fragile. The strong resistance zone is between $69,000 and $70,000. Do not hold heavy positions for bottom-fishing or chase rallies. Keep positions limited (≤30%), and wait for volume breakout above $70,000, continued volatility decline, and clear ETF net inflows before considering phased entries.