Can the RMB exchange rate stabilize within the "6 yuan range"?

In the foreign exchange market, China’s currency, the renminbi (RMB), has appreciated. On January 5, the RMB-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate reached a range of 1 U.S. dollar to 6.97 yuan, marking the strongest level of RMB appreciation and U.S. dollar depreciation in 2 years and 8 months. The ongoing accumulation of trade surpluses and other factors have created pressure to sell the U.S. dollar and buy the RMB. To avoid an economic downturn, relevant Chinese authorities have shown a restraining attitude toward the RMB’s appreciation.

Annual trade surplus first surpasses $1 trillion

On December 30, 2025, the RMB briefly rose to 1 U.S. dollar to 6.9870 yuan, breaking through the important level of 7 yuan, as the appreciation accelerated. This was the first time the RMB had broken the 7-yuan mark since May 2023. On January 5, 2026, it rose further again to 1 U.S. dollar to 6.9770 yuan.

When U.S.-China trade frictions peaked in mid-April 2025, the RMB exchange rate fell to 1 U.S. dollar to 7.3518 yuan, the lowest level in 17 years and 4 months. After the U.S. and China reached an agreement in May 2025 to reduce tariffs, the exchange rate began to recover, rising 5% compared with the April 2025 low.

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