Lin Rongxiong: Technology + Overseas Expansion + Resource Commodities Portfolio Reaches 90%! A-shares are expected to replicate the 2021 "structural adjustment" pattern

GateUser-bd883c58 · 2026-03-29T13:15:37+00:00

Guotou Securities pointed out that the A-share market is facing internal position structure imbalance and macroeconomic environment changes. Technology and outbound positions are high, while domestic demand real estate ETFs are undervalued and may present a recovery opportunity. It is expected to enter a structural "rebalancing" phase by 2026.

GateUser-bd883c58

2026-03-29 13:15:37

Abstract generation in progress

Can AI · Will the undervalued domestic real estate ETF see a recovery opportunity?

Lin Rongxiong from the research center of Guotou Securities stated: The current A-share market is facing two major underlying logical changes that cannot be ignored: 1. Structural imbalance in internal positions; 2. Significant changes in the macro environment.

In terms of institutional position structure, as of the fourth quarter of last year, the position of the technology sector among institutions has exceeded 50%, with over 70% in overseas markets, and nearly 90% in resource products. The high position in technology + overseas + resources makes it extremely sensitive to negative news, while sensitivity to positive news has decreased;
In terms of the macro environment, with high oil prices, the dollar has shifted from weak to strong, and the inevitable upward movement of oil prices has led to a contraction in the liquidity environment.

Against the backdrop of these two significant changes, we believe that the position pattern cannot maintain its original state, and a large-scale “rebalancing allocation” (or high cutting low) is unavoidable. Additionally, the gradual stabilization of domestic PPI will further constrain the continuation of the divergence between the two.

Referring to the situation in early 2021 when the market experienced a broad decline, transitioning from the “Mao Index” to the “Ning Combination,” 2026 will also enter a “structural adjustment” mode, facing structural “rebalancing” between technology, overseas resources (90% position) and domestic real estate (10% position).

The domestic real estate-related ETFs have undergone deep adjustments over the past five years, and the current valuation and chips are at low levels, which may present opportunities for recovery brought about by structural rebalancing: Real Estate ETF (515060.SH), Consumer ETF (510630.SH), Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH), Food ETF (159151.SZ).

Daily Economic News

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

1 Likes