Pre-market at 3:30: External conflicts escalate; a new speculative pathway evolution requires attention

Change arises from trends; recognize trends, seek trends, leverage trends, and ride trends. [淘股吧]

Over the weekend, news of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian steel mills, accompanying power plants, and nuclear facilities, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, escalated tensions. The U.S. stock market continued to decline on Friday, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 2%, hitting a new low for this phase. Crude oil futures surged on Friday night. Trump announced plans for a ceasefire, but fighting continued. The repeated nature of these conflicts may be the main theme in the near term. This week, after probing the lows, the index fluctuated. Although gjd made some moves, the effort was not substantial.

The thematic investments were also affected by the conflicts. This week, the main performers included: green energy, lithium mining, and chemicals, with funds primarily revolving around sectors that benefit from the conflicts. As previously mentioned, the valuation reconfiguration of green energy appears to be confirmed by the market’s performance this week, with energy substitution and new energy becoming the mainstream focus of speculation. The logic previously discussed around green energy valuation reconfiguration, as well as the rationale for other sectors, is as follows:

Energy substitution logic:
The core is the quadruple resonance of energy security + cost reversal + policy rigidity + computing power necessity. Energy substitution, token computing power going overseas.

Geopolitical conflicts are driving up oil and gas prices, while wind, solar, hydropower, and nuclear remain independently controllable, reinforcing the bottom line of energy security; the cost of electricity from photovoltaics and wind power has fallen below that of coal, a complete economic reversal; the dual carbon goals and the 14th Five-Year Plan clearly define non-fossil energy ratio targets, with strong policy enforcement; the explosion of AI computing power requires data centers to be mandatorily equipped with green electricity, solving consumption issues through coordinated electricity and computing.

Green energy logic:
Shifting from “utility defense” to “growth assets.” Profits are upgraded from single electricity fees to a threefold income of “electricity fees + green certificates + carbon revenues”; a supply-demand imbalance for green certificates has driven prices up sharply, combined with rising carbon prices, greatly enhancing cash flow certainty; valuation has shifted from low PB to growth stock PE, leading to valuation reconfiguration.

Chemical logic:
In the context of high oil prices, coal-based chemicals and phosphorus-fluorine chemicals benefit the most. China is rich in coal but poor in oil and gas, the cost advantage of coal-to-olefins and methanol is prominent, with operating rates nearly at full capacity; phosphorus and fluorine are core raw materials for new energy materials, demand for lithium iron phosphate and electrolytes is surging, and leading companies with high resource self-sufficiency have significant earnings elasticity.

Lithium mining logic: reversal of supply and demand + price bottoming and recovery. The growth of new energy vehicles is stable, with energy storage becoming the largest increment, demand growth exceeding 25%; overseas mining disruptions and limited domestic expansion mean supply growth is only 12%-15%, with inventory bottoming; lithium carbonate prices are rebounding, leading companies have massive earnings elasticity, and the cycle is reviving.

Beneficiary segments: photovoltaic/wind power equipment, energy storage (batteries/temperature control/integration), power grids (submarine cables/UHV), green hydrogen/green ammonia, energy metals such as copper, aluminum, silver, electric heavy trucks/battery swapping, industrial heat pumps, biodiesel/SAF.

Logically, energy substitution and new energy are long-term narrative frameworks, fundamental changes, and supply-demand issues. Short-term market disturbances do not change the trend of these directions. Additionally, there is a new path of speculation in the market currently:

Hangzhou Electric Co.:
Primarily exhibiting wave-like upward behavior, spiraling upwards: after a round of price increases, there is consolidation, and after consolidation, the peaks gradually rise, followed by adjustments, then continuing to make new highs.
With this wave-like pattern, the stock price rose from around 8 yuan to 24 yuan on Friday, an increase of nearly three times! The difference from previous short-term speculation is: the time cycle is extended! It manifests as wave-like fluctuations! Under a quantitative dominant background, such paths of speculation may become increasingly common.

For example:
Yuneng Holdings:
After an initial wave of main increases, it went through two adjustments but was pulled up again after each adjustment. During this high point, the time cycle has lengthened, and the stock price has not changed much, absorbing the short-term speculative funds over time. It also operates in a wave-like manner.

For example, Changfei Fiber:
Basically follows the same path, after a round of surges to a high point, it extends the time cycle, leading to wave-like fluctuations in the high interval before reaching new highs.

All of the above are the current trends of leading stocks in various sectors, primarily following a spiral, wave-like upward trend. This phenomenon and change were pointed out at the beginning of this week. From the current market results, the stocks with this trend are becoming increasingly obvious! The higher the position of a stock, the more it benefits and the easier it is for funds to pull it back and forth. The above discusses the trends of leading stocks in the fiber and electrical equipment sectors, as well as the impact of fiber price increases on leading stock trends. Based on the above trends, thoughts arise: there are stocks in the market with hard logic, including some leading stocks, and possible speculative paths for future trends.

Electricity: The trend related to electricity remains in a bullish trend over the past five days. As long as it does not break this five-day background, it cannot be casually viewed as bearish. It will be appropriate to look for bearish signs when it breaks the five-day line; currently, it is one of the few varieties still in a bullish trend.

Other relatively strong sectors include:
Energy metals,

Batteries, energy storage, etc.:

Individual stocks:
Power-related:
Leading: Huadian Liaoning, Yuneng Holdings, Huadian New Energy
Catch-up: Dongfang New Energy, Jinko Power, Guangxi Energy, Ningbo Energy

Fiber:
Hangzhou Electric Co., Changfei Fiber, Farsens, Hengtong Optics

Lithium mining:
Rongjie Co., Jiangte Electric, Tianhua New Energy

Innovative drugs:
Meinuohua, Wanbangde

Commercial aerospace:
Shenjian Co., Rebirth Technology, Western Materials, Shunhao Co.

Computing power:
Aorui De, Haixing Co., Guiguang Network, Huafu Fashion,

Huawei computing power:
Chuanrun Co.

Mergers and acquisitions:
Dashengda, Dongfang New Energy, Zhongnan Culture, Shitou Co.

AI applications:
Aorui De, Tiandi Online, Jiuan Medical.

Indium phosphide:
Yunnan Ge Industry

Chips:
Dinglong Co., Huate Gas,

Communication:
Changguang Huaxin, Tengjing Technology, Mingpu Optoelectronics, Dekeli, Guangku Technology, Taijing Technology, etc.

Current market:
The outer conflicts escalated over the weekend, with the U.S. stock market dropping on Friday. After a low opening on Monday, whether A-shares will rise again is quite important. If A-shares open low and rise high tomorrow, it may show resilience, which could be beneficial for the April market, combined with the strong performance of A-shares last Friday, making the probability of a low opening and high rise tomorrow also possible. However, current market funding levels are generally not high, and funds remain relatively cautious, so it is still not suitable for heavy positions. Additionally, the current market is still primarily controlled by quant trading, with sector direct surges or intra-day peaks being common. Although there was some chasing high funds last week, it was mainly localized and bundled, and sentiment is gradually recovering. Furthermore, after experiencing a significant drop, there are many trapped positions, making it highly likely that the market will mainly digest through wave-like fluctuations. The trend of localized stock bundling, such as in the technology and new energy sectors, is primarily based on the hard logic of individual stocks. If tomorrow the index opens low and rises high, the April market can be expected; the most difficult phase in March has passed, and normally April should not be more challenging than March.

Next week, the direction will likely revolve around the fermentation of market news for speculation, focusing on which areas show stronger sustainability. This week’s computing power and green energy, next week will observe the strength of domestic computing power, and other sectors benefiting from the conflicts will also be speculated repeatedly. The mainstream focus will be on: energy substitution and token computing power going overseas as two major logics. Additionally, the price increases along the conflict line should also be noted. Aorui De should be observed to see if it strengthens and advances!

News front:

1. Related to computing power: Huawei’s Ascend 950 enters mass production, Huawei’s i-chip has Byte and Alibaba planning to place orders; token search volume surges, and the three major telecom operators’ computing power revenues increase; the largest computing power infrastructure project in Hong Kong has started construction, expected to be operational in 42 months; the Super Intelligence Fusion Computing Platform has been launched.
2. Helium prices surged 50% due to the Middle East conflict.
3. Lithium mining: Australia’s diesel shortage crisis leads to a revaluation of lithium mining.
4. Innovative drugs have seen bright performance overseas; accelerating the establishment of hierarchical medical treatment.
5. Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked.