CICC's A-shares absorb and merge Dongxing and Cinda

Failure Probability Analysis:

This absorption merger involves CICC A+H, Dongxing, and Cinda Sifang, and the process is particularly lengthy. Any single failure in any step would lead to the failure of this absorption merger event (headache…).

The actual controllers of CICC, Dongxing, and Cinda are all Central Huijin, which greatly enhances the probability of a successful merger.

I believe:

The probability of success for this absorption merger is slightly higher, but not as high as imagined. Do not place blind faith in the will of xx; there have been cases of failed mergers involving state-owned enterprises:

• In June 2025, Haiguang Information’s absorption of Zhongke Shuguang failed, with the latter being the controlling shareholder and the actual controller being the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The reason is unclear (possibly related to taxes, as some shares need to be canceled).
• In January 2021, Chengfa Environment’s absorption of Qidi Environment failed; the former’s actual controller is the Henan Finance Department, while the latter has no actual controller. The reason for failure was that Qidi Environment was under investigation and no longer met the requirements of the restructuring management measures.
• In August 2012, Zhongbai Group’s absorption of Wuhan Zhongshang failed, with both parties being Wuhan state-owned assets. The A-share market was sluggish from 2011 to 2012, and stock prices were significantly lower than the cash option, leading to the shareholders’ meeting being overwhelmingly rejected.
• In May 2012, China Pharmaceuticals’ absorption of Tianfang Pharmaceutical failed, with both parties being central enterprises; the reason for failure was the same as above. Later, a second merger was successful.
• In December 2010, Shandong Iron and Steel’s absorption of Lai Steel Co. failed, with both parties being Shandong state-owned assets; the reason for failure was the same as above. However, both parties ultimately succeeded in merging. (Baido searched and found that there were three rounds of restructuring, with the first two failing and the third succeeding, specifics not verified.)
• In November 2008, Yuntianhua’s absorption of Yunnan Salt Chemical (Yunnan Energy Investment) and *ST Malong (Yunmei Energy) failed; all three parties are Yunnan state-owned assets.

In the past two months, CICC’s stock price has hovered near the cash option, and the securities sector has been weaker than the overall market. The CSRC industry index (883171) is approaching the adjustment trigger price. Thus, during the market crash on the 23rd, the four stocks experienced a sharp decline, showing no resistance to declines. In panic, three of the stocks (excluding CICC H) exhibited accelerated downward adjustments.

I believe:

The market is always right, and the market’s concerns are very reasonable. If the stock price does not rise above the cash option in the future, the probability of failure is very high; conversely, it will succeed (do not confuse cause and effect). A similar reference is the absorption of Dazhihui by Xiangcai Co. (see the image below).

![](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-442a0e5241-7fb80a4e68-8b7abd-ceda62)  

Pay attention to several key time points:

March 31, 2026, financial reports from the three companies, whether there are relevant proposals for discussion at the board meeting or annual shareholders’ meeting, I personally believe the probability is low;

CICC typically holds its annual shareholders’ meeting around June each year, and an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting may be held around October.

【Important Disclaimer】

The content of this article reflects the author’s independent views and does not represent the position of any other person or institution. The analysis in the article is based on publicly available information, which may no longer be accurate or valid due to changes in circumstances or other factors after publication, and does not constitute investment advice or operational basis. The market has risks; decisions should be made with caution. Investors should make their own judgments and bear corresponding risks.