"BTC OG Insider Whale" Agent: Easter weekend may be an window for escalation of the US-Iran conflict, and crude oil will break through $120 per barrel.

Mars Finance news: On March 29, in a post by Garrett Jin, the agent of the “BTC OG insider whale,” it was stated that “the Easter weekend (April 5 to 6) is widely believed to be the most likely time window for the United States’ comprehensive upgrade of actions against Iran. The timeline, political factors, and military deployments all point to this moment. If it’s not then, it’s only a matter of time. If the conflict escalates: the U.S. and Israel will launch a joint air-and-ground strike; with Congress in recess and European markets closed—by the time markets open on Tuesday in London, the global situation may already have changed.

Once war-triggered ripple effects occur: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed (insurance becomes invalid, meaning no shipping); Brent crude breaks above $120 per barrel; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rises to above 4.6%; within weeks, global bond markets may evaporate $2.5 trillion; the banking system fails to realize losses near the crisis levels of 2022; there is no clear path to a ceasefire.

The Federal Reserve will be in a bind, unable to achieve all three at once: controlling inflation (which requires rate hikes), preventing a banking crisis (which requires rate cuts), and financing the war (which requires keeping interest rates low). Historical experience shows that during wartime, inflation targets are often sacrificed. The Federal Reserve will keep rates at around 3.5%–3.75%, and implement “financial repression” through implicit liquidity and regulatory tools, pushing real interest rates negative to erode debt.

Nominally, the stock market may rise, but purchasing power will decline in reality. Energy, defense, and commodities will outperform; technology and consumer sectors face repricing. War is not a way to solve the debt problem—it is the manifestation of the debt problem. The real risk is not on the battlefield, but in the bond market—when demand for Treasury auctions weakens, the system will face fundamental change.”