Shen Jianguang: Geopolitical turbulence is reshaping the global energy landscape, and China has become the "most certain force."

Ask AI · How does China’s green electricity shift from surplus to shortage amid the global energy transition?

Written by | Zhu Yuting, Li Haidan

Edited by | Liu Peng

Amid the intensifying global geopolitical risks, drastic fluctuations in oil prices, major upheavals in capital markets, and the reorganization of supply chains, discussions on energy security and industrial overseas expansion were frequently mentioned at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026.

The Chinese green electricity industry, previously criticized by some economists as having “overcapacity,” is now experiencing a rapid reversal in demand under the impact of geopolitical conflicts: orders are pouring in, exports are accelerating, and the past narrative of “surplus” has quietly collapsed.

At the same time, the rise in oil prices is producing unexpected structural effects: the PPI in China’s economy has returned to positive territory, and deflation expectations are diminishing.

On the other hand, Shen Jianguang believes that there is a misaligned competition between China and the United States in the AI arena: the U.S. holds an original advantage, while China leads with its application advantage.

For Chinese companies venturing overseas, new energy industries such as photovoltaics and hydrogen energy are opening up new market spaces due to energy security crises in other countries; meanwhile, JD.com is accelerating its layout in the European market by launching a new online retail brand, Joybuy, leveraging compliance and legitimate tax channels.

At the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026, Shen Jianguang, Vice President and Chief Economist of JD Group, stated in a post-forum discussion that amid global turmoil, China possesses favorable conditions across multiple dimensions of energy, supply chains, and markets. Whether it is a stable supply of green electricity, a complete manufacturing supply chain, or a vast consumer market, China is becoming the most sought-after “certainty” globally.

The picture shows Shen Jianguang, taken by Tencent Finance.

The following are highlights from the conversation between Tencent Finance and Shen Jianguang:

Question: Do you think this is the most challenging time for global energy security issues?

Shen Jianguang: In Davos, the core discussions revolved around two topics: one is the changes in geopolitics, and the other is artificial intelligence.

Figures like Jensen Huang and Elon Musk have made it very clear that electricity is fundamental. Previously, some economists mentioned that there was overcapacity in China’s green electricity, but that voice has now disappeared, and people have come to realize it is an advantage.

Traditional oil and gas supplies are being impacted, while hydrogen and new energy are rapidly rising, leading to a supply-demand imbalance. In January-February, our exports further increased year-on-year to 21.8%, surpassing 20%, and March is expected to continue this momentum.

The core concern in the market right now is “sanctions”: oil and gas supply disruptions immediately put many countries in a difficult position; fertilizer export restrictions also put pressure on countries like India.

In this situation, China provides the most scarce form of certainty and stability in energy, supply chains, products, services, and markets, which is the foundation for gaining international trust.

Question: You attended Winter Davos and came to Boao; do you have different feelings about these two forums?

Shen Jianguang: The topics at both forums are highly consistent, including geopolitical changes and artificial intelligence, but the perspectives differ. Davos is mainly dominated by discussions from the U.S. and Europe, while Boao presents more of an Asian perspective.

Question: How long do you think the U.S.-Iran situation will last?

Shen Jianguang: It’s hard to judge; the situation is indeed tricky, and we can only take it one step at a time, leading to significant market fluctuations.

Question: Given the current market volatility, how do you view the underlying driving factors?

Shen Jianguang: The commodity markets are inevitably influenced by geopolitical conflicts, and fluctuations are to be expected.

At the same time, the development of artificial intelligence continues to provide new growth engines, with energy playing a key role.

In the AI field, both China and the U.S. have their strengths: the U.S. excels in originality, while China excels in application. The high acceptance and willingness of Chinese users to try new things are crucial conditions for the rapid popularization of AI applications.

Question: After the rise in oil prices, what impact do you see on China’s economic development?

Shen Jianguang: The rise in oil prices is not necessarily a bad thing. While there are side effects, in China’s current specific context, the rise in oil prices directly drives the PPI to turn positive, and the most important effect is the elimination of deflation expectations. Once deflation expectations fade, the phenomenon of excessive internal competition is also expected to improve to some extent. This is one of the reasons I believe China has the most favorable conditions amid global turmoil.

Question: China is the world’s leader in photovoltaics, but faces challenges such as tariff barriers when going overseas. How do you think Chinese companies should respond?

Shen Jianguang: China has established the strongest capacity advantage in the photovoltaic sector.

During stable market periods, pressures of “overcapacity” and anti-dumping do exist, but once other countries face issues with oil security, the energy structure will inevitably undergo transformation, which is beneficial for the upstream and midstream enterprises in China’s photovoltaic industry.

The key is to seize the opportunity and further strengthen the supply chain industry.

Question: However, the photovoltaic industry is currently highly competitive, and price wars have compressed profits to very low levels.

Shen Jianguang: Indeed, but this round of external shocks has brought additional benefits; with oil and gas supply issues, demand for clean electricity from various countries will only increase.

Question: JD’s logistics business also has related layouts in the European market. Can you share the progress?

Shen Jianguang: We recently launched an e-commerce service for Europe called “Joybuy,” aiming to provide European consumers with the same convenience in e-commerce as they enjoy domestically.

Currently focused on the European market, we will gradually advance in the future.