U.S. stocks' semiconductor sector declines across the board, Intel drops 5%, crude oil surges 5%, Trump says Iran will face greater consequences

Due to the situation in the Middle East, on Tuesday Eastern Time, European and American stock markets all declined. The German DAX index and the French CAC40 index fell over 3%, while the UK FTSE 100 index dropped more than 2%; the Nasdaq declined over 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 400 points, approaching a 1% decrease.

Most large-cap technology stocks in the U.S. declined, with Tesla down over 2%, Nvidia down more than 1%, and Google and Apple slightly lower; Microsoft rose over 1%, and Amazon and Netflix experienced slight increases.

Chip stocks performed poorly, with the semiconductor industry chain experiencing widespread declines. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 4.5%, SanDisk dropped nearly 9%, Micron Technology declined nearly 8%, Kioxia Semiconductor fell over 6%, Intel decreased more than 5%, ASML dropped over 4%, and TSMC declined over 4%.

Chinese concept stocks generally declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping over 3%. Kingsoft Cloud and Jinko Solar fell over 8%, Xpeng Motors and Pony.ai dropped over 6%, and Alibaba and iQIYI declined nearly 5%; Trip.com and NetEase saw slight gains.

Among U.S. sector ETFs, the semiconductor ETF decreased by 3.77%, while the global technology stock index ETF and biotech index ETF fell up to 2.39%. The technology sector ETF declined 1.46%.

Commodities experienced intense volatility, with international precious metals all plunging. Spot gold fell $233 during the day, a decline of over 4%, narrowly holding above the $5000 mark; spot silver dropped over 8%, trading at $82 per ounce; spot platinum and palladium fell over 9% and 7%, respectively. Today (March 4), the market opened with gold and silver rising collectively, with spot gold reaching $5100.

International oil prices surged collectively, with WTI crude oil rising 5%, approaching $75 per barrel, and Brent crude oil surpassing $82 per barrel, with a daily increase of 5.6%.

Additionally, the U.S. dollar index broke through 99, reaching a new high since January 20, rising 0.52% to 99.06.

Regarding the outlook for U.S. stocks, the Goldman Sachs trading team recently stated that the market is in a phase of “initial volatility and pullback, then attempting to break through effectively (for example, the S&P 500 at 7000 points).” The key factors influencing the future are not the conflict events themselves, but the persistence of oil price shocks, whether transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will be interrupted long-term, and whether this will further worsen inflation expectations and the path of interest rate cuts.

On the situation in the Middle East, according to CCTV News, on March 3 local time, U.S. President Trump denied being “dragged into war” by Israel, stating, “If there is, it may be I pushed Israel’s hand.” Currently, Iran’s “almost all military capabilities have been destroyed,” and it will “suffer greater strikes” next.

According to a report by Caixin, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari said that the conflict in Iran has increased uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook, making the direction of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy even harder to predict.

According to a report by 21st Century Business Herald, Wu Qidi, director of the Research Institute of Yuanda Information Securities, stated that in the short term, the priority of anti-inflation measures may be passively elevated, leading the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. The Fed may consider geopolitical uncertainties and choose a “higher and longer” interest rate policy to observe how the situation develops.

Traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates no earlier than September, later than previous expectations.