International oil prices once again break $100, gold prices continue to weaken! Commodities are experiencing sharp divergence, and gold stocks are collectively outperforming.

International crude oil continues to rise, while international gold prices fall again.

International oil prices surge sharply

On March 26, international crude oil kept rising. As of the time of this report, WTI crude oil futures were up more than 3%, at $93.63 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures were up 3.28%, at $100.45 per barrel.

On the news front, according to CCTV News, on March 26, the Israeli Defense Forces announced that they launched a series of large-scale attacks on Iran’s infrastructure in Isfahan. Catalyzed by this development, international oil prices returned to an uptrend.

Multiple institutions predict that international oil prices will continue to climb. Goldman Sachs said that the flow through the Strait of Hormuz may gradually resume starting in mid-April; if upstream disruption intensifies, oil prices in the next two years could remain above $100 per barrel.

Barclays also believes that if the situation drags on into late April, the 2026 Brent crude forward price may be reset to $100 per barrel.

Another point worth paying attention to is that market concerns about short-term inflation being driven higher by a surge in oil and natural gas prices are intensifying rapidly. At present, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates this year has already exceeded expectations for rate cuts; the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also expected to raise rates multiple times.

International gold prices fall again

During trading on March 26, international gold prices weakened again. COMEX gold was down more than 3% at one point during the session, with prices dipping to $4,400 per ounce. Spot gold also fell sharply: London gold spot dropped nearly 2% during the session, with the lowest price near $4,410 per ounce.

If we extend the timeline. Recently, COMEX gold has consecutively failed to hold multiple key support levels, with the low reaching $4,100 per ounce. This week, however, with news catalysts, it rebounded sharply for two consecutive days. There is a conflict between market risk-aversion sentiment and macro pricing mechanisms, causing gold prices to deliver a “roller-coaster” market.

Bosera Fund said that as the situation in the Middle East escalates, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, and risks spill over from surrounding regions, some capital has begun to prioritize liquidity and asset safety. This has led gold holders to sell physical gold in certain local markets even at a discount. Although these passive sell orders do not necessarily indicate a bearish view in the long run, they are sufficient to amplify price volatility in a short time.

Looking ahead, Fangzheng Securities believes that against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risk and increased demand for safe havens, short-term gold prices still have the possibility of moving back up toward around $5,500 per ounce. In the medium term, gold is likely to show a high-range consolidation pattern with a slight bullish tilt, and the trading range may concentrate at $4,750—$5,500 per ounce. In the long run, it is supported by factors such as a weaker U.S. dollar, lower real interest rates, inflows into ETF funds, and an increase in allocation demand, so it still has strong strategic allocation value. In an optimistic scenario, the gold price center of gravity could also move higher further.

Bank of America said that before speculative positions are cleared and the macro environment stabilizes, international gold prices may maintain a pattern of consolidation and range trading. Central banks’ long-term demand for gold purchases still has a basis to return, but its recovery depends on geopolitical conflicts easing and energy markets returning to normal. Before that, the gold market will remain dominated by a logic of prioritizing liquidity.

Gold stocks post collective profitability

According to Securities Times·DataBao statistics, since the Year of the Goat (from February 24 to March 25), financing funds added to positions in four gold stocks—Chifeng Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, Hunan Gold, and Shandong Gold. The net buying amounts were $172 million, $58.3845 million, $50.5708 million, and $31.6969 million, respectively.

Chifeng Gold currently operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine, including the Laos Vientiane Mining and Ghana Wassa Gold mines located overseas. By the end of 2025, on a consolidated basis, Chifeng Gold holds gold resources (GORO) of 583 tonnes, with an average grade of 1.54 grams/ton.

On the morning of March 23, Chifeng Gold and Zijin Mining both released announcements—Zijin Mining plans to obtain control of Chifeng Gold through a combination of an acquisition and a non-public offering of shares, with total spending of 18.258 billion yuan.

As of March 26, 10 gold stocks have already released reports related to 2025 performance. Based on annual report data or the midpoint figures in profit forecasts, all 10 companies turned a profit. Zijin Mining’s net profit was far ahead at 51.777 billion yuan; followed by Zijin Mining?—China Gold and Shandong Gold and Chifeng Gold—net profits were 5.1 billion yuan, 4.75 billion yuan, and 3.082 billion yuan, respectively.

Zijin Mining achieved revenue of 349.1 billion yuan in 2025, up 15% year over year; attributable net profit was 51.777 billion yuan, up 61.55% year over year, marking the first time in history it surpassed 50 billion yuan. The growth in net profit mainly benefited from both higher production volume and improved product pricing.

By the end of 2025, on a consolidated basis, Zijin Mining’s gold resources (GORO) were 4,610.48 tonnes and gold reserves were 1,996.25 tonnes. Full-year 2025 gold mining capacity reached 90 tonnes, and it is expected to reach 105 tonnes in 2026.

In terms of changes in net profit, gold stocks generally saw sizable year-over-year performance increases in 2025. Xiaocheng Technology’s full-year net profit more than doubled, with a year-over-year increase of 136.28%. Sichuan Gold, Western Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Hunan Gold followed closely, with their year-over-year net profit increases all at more than 70%.

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