Rationally view space photovoltaic heat

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Reporter Yin Gaofeng and Xiang Yantao

Since the beginning of this year, space photovoltaics have become a dual focus of global technology and capital. From the grand space energy blueprint that countries are competing to layout, to the rigid demand for electricity generated by the booming commercial space industry, and to the warm embrace of the capital markets, multiple forces intertwine and resonate, pushing this form of energy into the spotlight.

What are the current technological routes for space photovoltaics? What is the true level of commercialization? In the face of this overwhelming heat, how should the industry remain clear-headed? Many industry insiders interviewed indicated that for photovoltaics to truly achieve large-scale “grabbing the moon in the ninth sky,” its foundation still lies in the maturity and reliability of technology, as well as the accessibility of costs.

The industry stands at a critical juncture

Space photovoltaics refer to the use of solar photovoltaic technology to obtain energy in extraterrestrial environments such as space or the moon, transmitting electricity to the ground wirelessly, or powering facilities such as satellites, space stations, and space data centers in orbit.

In fact, for the aerospace field, photovoltaics are not a new phenomenon; the two have been linked for a long time. As early as 1958, the United States’ “Vanguard 1” satellite was the first to carry photovoltaic cells into space, marking the beginning of the application of photovoltaic technology in space; in the 1980s, China’s “Dongfanghong 4” satellite also used rigid solar cell arrays for power supply, laying the early foundation for China’s aerospace photovoltaics.

What truly ignited this round of enthusiasm is the explosive growth of the commercial space sector in recent years, providing the most direct demand drive for space photovoltaics. The construction of low-earth orbit satellite constellations has noticeably accelerated, and the demand for applications such as communications, remote sensing, and navigation continues to be released. Meanwhile, the launch costs of commercial rockets have significantly decreased, and their orbital capabilities have been greatly enhanced, making longer orbital lifetimes and more complex payload tasks the norm, leading to an unprecedented demand for stable, efficient, and durable energy supply systems, thereby placing space photovoltaics at the forefront of the industry.

From a longer-term perspective, the combination of commercial space and space computing is opening up an unprecedentedly broad market for the photovoltaic industry. A technician from a space company stated that future satellites will no longer just “take pictures and transmit data,” but rather serve as “data centers in space,” undertaking tasks such as in-orbit AI model training, low-latency edge computing, high-energy onboard payloads, and large-scale constellation collaborative computing, all of which impose disruptive requirements on energy supply.

By 2025, several key developments will serve as turning points for the development of space photovoltaics: China’s “Sun Chaser Project” will achieve wireless power transmission from an orbit 36,000 kilometers away to the ground, lighting up lamps, while the photovoltaic power generation efficiency in synchronous orbit will reach 8.6 times that of the ground; multiple reusable rockets will complete key technology verifications.

“The emergence of space photovoltaics as a hot topic is by no means a coincidence; the core is the result of the combination of ‘technological breakthroughs + capital speculation + policy expectations,’” said Zheng Tianhong, a senior analyst in photovoltaics at Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network.

Commercialization faces long and arduous paths

Industry insiders explain that the extreme temperature environments, strong radiation environments, and high vacuum conditions in space impose extremely stringent requirements on energy supply, while the particularity of space missions also demands that energy supply maintain long-term stability and reliability. For space photovoltaics to succeed in commercialization, there are still huge challenges ahead.

Under the fervor of the concept, industry consensus is becoming increasingly clear: the current global space photovoltaic technology is still in the early stages of exploration and validation, far from establishing a mainstream technological route.

It is understood that the main technological routes for space photovoltaics currently include triple-junction gallium arsenide, P-type heterojunction, and perovskite tandem batteries. Public information shows that as early as 2000, triple-junction gallium arsenide batteries were already used in satellite launches, achieving a power generation efficiency of up to 30%, but with costs as high as 1000 yuan/W, making them only suitable for military and high-end satellites.

“Technological breakthroughs have lowered the threshold for commercialization feasibility, which is the core reason,” Zheng Tianhong analyzed. In the past, space photovoltaics relied on expensive gallium arsenide batteries, with extremely high costs per watt, but the application of P-type heterojunction battery technology has significantly reduced the theoretical costs of space photovoltaics, greatly lowering the costs of satellite deployment, thus taking a step forward from “sci-fi concepts” to “real-world implementation.”

Qihai Shen, CEO of Yingkou Jincheng Machinery Co., Ltd., introduced that commercial space satellites are usually smaller in size, and their requirements for the lifespan and quality of photovoltaics do not entirely align with military or special-purpose satellites, providing practical application space for more cost-controllable technological routes.

Many industry insiders believe that P-type heterojunction batteries represent a relatively balanced choice in terms of efficiency, lightweight design, and radiation resistance within existing mass production technologies, and may become an important option during the transition phase to commercialization.

Despite the promising outlook, challenges remain. A researcher from a photovoltaic company candidly admitted that any new technology must undergo long-term and rigorous validation in the space environment, and low-cost mass production processes still need to mature. Currently, gallium arsenide batteries, known for their high reliability after long-term in-orbit validation, remain the mainstream choice for many missions. The current production of space photovoltaics is mainly in small batches and customized; to achieve true commercialization, it is essential to establish stable mass production capabilities, standardized supply chains, and comprehensive quality control systems.

Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, also holds a cautious attitude. He believes that the current concept of space photovoltaics is more about the rotation of funding hotspots; efficient silicon-based space photovoltaics still belong to cutting-edge technology, and in the next 3 to 5 years, it may be in a concept incubation period. It could take 8 to 10 years to cultivate it into a new growth pole.

“No matter what technological route is taken, truly moving toward implementation hinges on one prerequisite—mature, replicable efficient manufacturing capabilities and a long-term reliability verification system,” said Liu Yiyang, executive secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.

Publicly listed companies are taking proactive steps

In the face of this potentially limitless new blue ocean of space photovoltaics, listed companies in the industry chain have begun to engage in forward-looking layouts and technological breakthroughs.

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. established the Future Energy Space Laboratory in cooperation with relevant aerospace research institutions as early as 2022, aiming to promote the space verification and application development of advanced photovoltaic technologies.

Suzhou Zhonglai Photovoltaic New Materials Co., Ltd. stated on its investor interaction platform that the company is developing packaging for backplane products to adapt to space photovoltaic modules. Currently, the ongoing research and development of perovskite and crystalline silicon tandem products is expected to be applied to diverse scenarios including space in the future.

Recently, Hainan Junda New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Junda Co., Ltd.”) invested in and took a stake in Shanghai Xingyi Xinneng Technology Co., Ltd., aiming to seize the development opportunities of global low-earth orbit satellite networking and space computing industries. However, a relevant person in charge of Junda Co., Ltd. also cautioned that the customization level of products in the field of space photovoltaics is high and the verification cycle is long, with related businesses currently still in the stages of technological research and early validation, and cooperative products also needing to complete in-orbit validation.

Qihai Shen stated that a rational perspective on the enthusiasm for space photovoltaics is needed: although its market scale is significant, the release of production capacity is gradual. Compared to ground photovoltaic power stations, space photovoltaics have higher demands for new packaging materials, radiation-resistant materials, and related processes and equipment, all of which must be built on the basis of low-cost operations. The future development trend of space photovoltaics will be to continuously enhance the performance stability of products while further reducing costs, under the premise of meeting the power needs of satellites.

On the journey towards the stars and the sea, technology should be the foundation, and rationality should steer the course. “Currently, short-term speculation outweighs actual implementation; in the long run, space photovoltaics have their strategic value and are not entirely a ‘castle in the air,’” Zheng Tianhong stated. On one hand, space photovoltaics can solve the intermittency and regional issues of ground photovoltaics, providing 24-hour uninterrupted power generation, which has significant strategic implications for global energy transition; on the other hand, space photovoltaics still face numerous bottlenecks, such as low microwave transmission efficiency, difficulties in large-scale deployment, substantial capital investment, and the need for breakthroughs in technology. Therefore, it is necessary to take a rational view of the enthusiasm for space photovoltaics, paying attention to its long-term potential while also being wary of the risks of short-term speculation.

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