Praseodymium and neodymium spot prices stabilize after decline! Xiamen Tungsten and China Rare Earths lead the gains

Praseodymium and neodymium oxide experienced a price drop of 21.91% in less than a month, from February 27 to March 19, before rebounding on March 20, putting an end to the previous sharp decline! Entering this week, praseodymium and neodymium oxide showed overall narrow fluctuations. Although downstream procurement demand is weak, the overall average price remained stable at 712,500 yuan/ton on March 26 and 27, influenced by the scarcity of low-priced sources in the hands of traders, some separation plants halting production, and firm pricing from separation plants.

Due to the stabilization of praseodymium and neodymium spot prices, upstream support, and a partial capital inflow into the rare earth permanent magnet sector, along with a preference for strategic resource metals, the rare earth permanent magnet concept sector strengthened. As of the market close on March 27, the rare earth permanent magnet concept sector rose by 2.41%; among individual stocks, Zhongmin Resources increased by over 7%, while Xinlaifu, Chifeng Gold, Jiuwu High-tech, Zhong Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Yahua Group, Yare New Materials, and Huahong Technology saw significant gains.

Praseodymium and neodymium oxide remained stable overall, rising by 1.42% this week.

In the spot market, rare earth prices have shown overall stability recently. On March 27, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was reported at 710,000 to 715,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 712,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.

The average price peak of praseodymium and neodymium oxide on February 27 was 890,000 yuan/ton, while its average price on March 19 was 695,000 yuan/ton. In less than a month, its average price dropped by nearly 195,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.91%. After experiencing the previous sharp decline, praseodymium and neodymium oxide showed relatively small fluctuations this week. The average price on March 27 was 712,500 yuan/ton, compared to 702,500 yuan/ton on March 20, indicating a price increase of 10,000 yuan/ton this week, with a rise of 1.42%.

Looking at the future of rare earths, the recent halt in production by some separation plants will provide support to rare earth prices from the supply side, increasing the willingness of upstream to maintain prices. However, downstream demand is weak, and the end-user demand is gradually entering the off-season, which will suppress the market performance of rare earths. If there are no significant changes on both the supply and demand sides, and the market trading sentiment does not shift significantly, it is expected that rare earth prices will fluctuate narrowly amid the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream.

Institutional Insights

Huatai Securities believes that rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, and cobalt are catalyzed by geopolitical conflicts, and expectations for strategic reserves and military stockpiling continue to strengthen. The supply side is highly concentrated domestically, and external shocks are difficult to replace. Their anti-fall characteristics and medium-term allocation value are more prominent, and the overall repair opportunities after significant declines are worth paying active attention to.

Dongguan Securities believes that supply and demand optimization may drive rare earth product prices upward again. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the rare earth market has further diverged, with light rare earth prices rebounding after a high retreat, while medium and heavy rare earth prices continue to adjust. Light rare earths are supported by rising costs of rare earth concentrates, expectations for increased downstream demand, and tightening export controls, stabilizing and rebounding after high fluctuations. In medium and heavy rare earths, overseas high prices suppress demand, and profit-taking is concentrated, putting overall price performance under pressure. Entering 2026, as the supply and demand pattern gradually optimizes and export controls tighten, rare earth product prices are expected to rise further. Looking ahead, domestic rare earth supply-side quota growth is expected to slow, and in terms of demand, areas such as humanoid robots and the low-altitude economy are expected to open a second growth pole for rare earth demand this year, further optimizing the supply and demand logic in the rare earth industry.

Changjiang Securities, in its research report, emphasizes the importance of lithium allocation. 1) Lithium, as a risk-averse variety benefiting from independent supply and demand logic, will see outstanding excess returns in the second quarter. The actual degree of supply and demand shortage this round may exceed expectations, and we are optimistic that lithium prices will break through previous highs, continuing to strongly favor the overall beta trend of the sector, where sector positioning is more important than individual stocks. 2) Strategic metals are facing value reassessment: rare earths and tungsten. In the context of escalating international geopolitical friction, rare earths, as the most core strategic metal and bargaining chip, are expected to maintain their strategic value in the long term, and the performance of rare earth companies is expected to rebound again. For magnetic material companies, pay attention to inventory gains after the rise in rare earth prices, as well as the added value enhancement brought by the accelerated application of humanoid robots. Regarding tungsten, the supply and demand logic remains unchanged, and tungsten prices are still prone to rise but difficult to fall. Although tungsten prices have slightly retreated from high levels, overseas quotes remain very firm, and the underlying logic remains unchanged, making significant price adjustments unlikely. Tungsten supply is rigid, and the cost of downstream end users occupies a relatively low proportion, leaving considerable room for price elasticity. In the current global landscape, tungsten’s position as a strategic metal needs substantial reassessment. 3) High concentration in supply, with policies controlling supply in overseas resource countries: cobalt and nickel. Regarding cobalt, inventory continues to deplete, and a price increase is imminent. Cobalt prices may start to rise after the arrival of the first batch of raw materials around April. The global cobalt market will face shortages in 2026-2027, with cobalt prices prone to rise but difficult to fall, which is highly anticipated. Favorable for resource-oriented enterprises, Congolese cobalt mining companies have significant elasticity in compensating quantity with price. Indonesian nickel: BK1622 7062.99 2.46% cobalt wet-process targets are also expected to benefit in the long term from rising cobalt prices. In terms of nickel, contradictions are gradually accumulating, potentially brewing a second round of upward movement. In the long term, the price center of nickel has significantly risen, and nickel equity elasticity is greater than that of commodities, with a large probability of bottom configurations.

Dongfang Securities believes that excessive inventory opens up price space, and is optimistic about the dual impact of profitability and valuation in the rare earth sector. Domestic policies for total quantity control management of rare earths are gradually being implemented, and rare earth quotas have shown a declining trend in recent years. Although overseas willingness to build rare earth supply chains is strong, progress is generally slow, and capacity increases are mainly concentrated in the United States, Japan, and Europe, which means that future domestic and foreign supply increases are likely to be “locked in,” and long-term supply rigidity will continue to strengthen.

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Original statement: This article is produced by SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Network, author: Li Dan. Please respect our copyright/intellectual property. Unauthorized reproduction is not allowed. For reprinting, please contact the editor for authorization through the background for business cooperation. The information provided in this article is for reference only, and it does not constitute direct investment research advice. Any decisions made by customers are unrelated to Shanghai Nonferrous Network.

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