Faced with reassurance from Gulf countries, American investors are "worried sick": How much longer can the Middle Eastern economy last? Does the Middle East still have money to invest in the US?

Officials from the Gulf countries are loudly calling in Miami to “stay calm and keep investing,” but the signals being conveyed privately are entirely different—prolonged warfare is eroding the economic resilience of the Middle East, and doubts are quietly rising about whether Gulf sovereign wealth funds can maintain their pace of investment in the U.S.

This week, the Saudi Arabia-backed “Future Investment Initiative Priority Miami” summit is being held. Yasir al-Rumayyan, chairman of the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), barely mentioned the war in his opening remarks, focusing instead on the solid fundamentals of the Saudi economy and its diversified investment portfolio.

However, according to a report from the Financial Times, people who met with Gulf officials privately revealed that the atmosphere is far more concerning than what is publicly stated—some officials warn that if the conflict extends beyond April, it will have a greater impact on the Saudi economy and its ability to invest overseas.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan publicly acknowledged that the impact of the conflict on the economy is “more severe than after the COVID-19 pandemic,” and he stated that if the situation continues, the effects will deepen further. Meanwhile, the nearly stagnant transit traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has affected multiple commodity sectors, including oil, refined products, fertilizers, aluminum, and petrochemicals, causing oil prices to rise to their highest level since July 2022, putting pressure on global stock markets.

The gap between official statements and private sentiments

During the summit, officials from three Gulf countries—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—publicly emphasized unity and resilience, striving to convey a stable message to the American business community. Al-Rumayyan stated that PIF “measures returns over a decade rather than a quarter,” reaffirming their commitment to global investments.

However, reports indicate that the tone in private settings is noticeably different. A top banker in Miami stated: “The pressure on the Qataris is beyond expectations; they can’t hold on for much longer. The same goes for Abu Dhabi.”

Mohamed Alabbar, founder of Dubai’s real estate giant Emaar, attempted to convey confidence through video link, but attendees generally felt a deliberately suppressed anxiety.

Middle Eastern economy under pressure, investment capabilities questioned

The impact of the war on the Gulf economy is no longer limited to oil price fluctuations. Al-Jadaan clearly pointed out that the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has severely affected multiple industries, including refined products, fertilizers, aluminum, and petrochemicals, with the overall impact even surpassing the recovery pressure after the pandemic.

Against this backdrop, outside observers are beginning to reassess the external investment capabilities of Gulf sovereign wealth funds. PIF has previously made deep investments in the U.S. market, holding shares in companies like Uber and Blackstone, and participating in financing arrangements for Electronic Arts’ acquisition and Paramount’s $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.

According to the Financial Times, a person who traveled from the Middle East to attend the summit stated, “Everything seems unchanged at the moment, but if the situation evolves into a choice between ensuring the safety of their own citizens and supporting a video game deal, they won’t hesitate long—existing commitments may be delayed or canceled.”

Investor support coexists with concerns

At the summit, the attitudes of American investors showed clear divergence. Some held an optimistic view. Bill Ford, chairman of General Atlantic, stated that if a peace agreement could be reached, Iran, Israel, and the Gulf Cooperation Council could form a broader Middle Eastern economic zone, “which would be an extremely attractive investment destination.”

However, other financial professionals candidly expressed their concerns. A financial professional who voted for Trump stated, “There are no clear indications that Trump knows how this war will end.” Another business leader criticized the government for failing to adequately assess the economic costs of actions against Iran, arguing that soaring commodity prices and falling stock markets “cannot last too long.”

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