Yang Chengfa: Limited upside space for gold, still need to short. Today's gold trend analysis

International Gold:

On March 27, Trump announced, at Iran’s request, that the final deadline for actions targeting Iran’s energy facilities would be extended by 10 days to April 6. On the surface, this appears to be a goodwill gesture showing progress in peace talks. However, spot gold plunged 2.8% that day to 4,377.85 USD, while the April contract gold fell even more sharply by 3.9% to 4,376.3 USD. Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war, gold has cumulatively fallen by 17%, completely breaking the traditional safe-haven logic under geopolitical conflicts. In this “war fog,” oil prices surged wildly, inflation alarms were sounded, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates within the year rose to 40%, supporting the U.S. dollar index to extend its third consecutive session of gains, and gold prices were clearly pressured.

From the current market conditions, the short-term bearish structure on the daily timeframe has not been broken. The moving average system still remains in a bearish arrangement. Short-term moving averages such as MA5, MA10, etc. may have curled up, but the medium- and long-term moving averages continue to suppress downward. Gold rebounds have never been able to effectively break through key resistance levels, and every time it rebounds, trading volume shrinks, highlighting insufficient upside momentum. This fits a “weak rebound, strong suppression” pattern. On the 4-hour timeframe, after rebounding to the $4,480–$4,500 per ounce pressure zone, it was clearly rejected here. This is both the high point of a previous small structure and a level where short-term moving averages are suppressing price. After the rebound encounters resistance, clear signs of a pullback have emerged, and the bearish pressure has not eased.

Taking everything above into account: for day trading, the recommendation is to focus on selling at high levels, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. For resistance, first pay attention to the 5-day moving average area at 4,435–4,440. Below that, look for a test around yesterday’s low at 4,350. If that level breaks, there is a possibility that declines could extend toward the 4,300 level. If bulls break strongly through, next watch around 4,500, and then focus on the 4,600 area. It is expected that this area will be the limit before next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls data is released; if price touches or approaches it, shorting can still be continued. As for support, focus on 4,350 and 4,300. Treat above the former as relatively strong; above the latter, expect consolidation in the 4,300–4,600 range, and then wait for the Non-Farm Payrolls data to provide guidance.

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By: Chen Ping