Descending from a trillion-dollar market cap, Wantai Biological fights against Merck & Co.

Ask AI · In the HPV vaccine “Red Sea Battle,” how has Wantai Bio broken the deadlock through cooperation?

The valuation logic has been completely overturned.

《Investor Network》 Cai Jun

The management changes at Wantai Bio (603392.SH, hereinafter “the company”) are still ongoing.

In March, the company announced that the Secretary to the Board of Directors, Yu Tao, resigned due to personal and family reasons. In 2007, he worked within the company’s management system, serving as Head of Marketing, Head of Business Development, and others. Since 2024, the company’s adjustments to the Chief Executive Officer, Deputy CEOs, and others have followed one after another, and the new appointees are all “post-70s.” The trend of younger senior management is already evident.

In essence, the company is launching a campaign to tackle domestically developed HPV vaccines. This battle takes place at the turning point when the consumer vaccine track is changing direction, and publicly listed companies in general have also experienced changes to varying degrees. At the crossroads of the times, changes are happening quietly.

A Key Battle of Needle-Point vs. Wheat-Edge: Domestic Substitution

In 2025, Pan Hui Rong, born in the 1970s, became the company’s Deputy General Manager in charge of the vaccine business. His long career has been within the company’s system; he served as R&D Director of a subsidiary, Xiamen Wantai Canghai. Earlier still, Jiang Zhiming, born in the 1970s, took over as the company’s General Manager. He previously worked at Danaher Group’s Beckman Coulter, serving as General Manager for China, and he also held leadership at Wuhan United Imaging Zhifuant Medical.

Clearly, the company is carrying out in-depth adjustments to its senior leadership toward younger age and greater specialization, to better adapt to fierce market competition. This is especially the case as the company has rolled out a major new product, trying to achieve a “key leap.”

In 2025, the company’s first domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine上市, with the brand name Xin Ke Ning, was launched. Developed over 18 years, it is the world’s second such vaccine and the first domestically developed one of its class in China. Previously, Merck & Co. had long monopolized this high-end product in China, while domestic distribution was handled by Zhifei Bio.

In essence, the company’s leadership reshuffle combined with the launch of the new product is intended to accelerate the pace of domestic substitution. In terms of product competitiveness, Xin Ke Ning’s protection rate against viral subtypes that the two-valent vaccine cannot cover is over 98%, with protective efficacy comparable to imported products. At the same time, Xin Ke Ning is priced at only 499 yuan per dose, less than 40% of the price of imported products of the same type.

As of now, the approved production capacity for Xin Ke Ning has reached 20 million doses. Sales channels have covered 31 provinces and municipalities nationwide and more than 97% of counties/districts. Relying on the mature channels accumulated from the two-valent vaccine, it is quickly driving commercialization.

On the other side of the domestic substitution battle, Merck & Co. has already started multiple clinical trials targeting male vaccination, covering the full age range from 9 to 45. Different from traditional female vaccination groups, imported manufacturers are anchored on an additional growth “cake.”

But that cake, the company has also initiated clinical research on male indications. In other words, the HPV vaccine battle between imported and domestic products has entered the critical stage of needle-point vs. wheat-edge.

Systematic Reassessment

From an industry perspective, the iteration speed in China’s HPV vaccine market—and even the entire consumer vaccine market—is continually accelerating. Moreover, with technological upgrades and reshaping of the competitive landscape, the rise and fall of Wantai Bio is also deeply tied to industry cycles.

The first stage was the consumer expansion period from 2006 to 2018. At that time, children’s vaccines such as hand, foot and mouth disease and influenza supported the industry’s basic foundation. High-end vaccines such as HPV and 13-valent pneumococcal vaccines entered the domestic market via overseas introductions, and categories were initially segmented. Domestic companies mainly relied on vaccines developed independently. The high-end market was entirely occupied by foreign brands, and the industry was in a blue-ocean stage, with no intense competition yet.

The second stage was the consumer upgrade period from 2019 to 2023. After the Changsheng vaccine incident, consumers’ vaccination concepts shifted from basic defense to high-end protection. Demand for HPV vaccines among women surged sharply, and there was even a period of “vaccine scarcity.” The market showed a trend toward importation and high-end positioning. Wantai Bio, leveraging its domestically developed first two-valent HPV vaccine co-developed with Xiamen University, seized the industry’s windfall and rapidly captured market share. Its market value surged beyond one trillion yuan, and the company’s actual controller Zhong Zhenshi also climbed to the top as Forbes China’s richest person, enjoying industry dividends.

The third stage is the current period from 2024 to present: consumer stagnation and market “involution.” With breakthroughs in domestic vaccine technology, multiple companies entered the HPV track. Price wars for two-valent vaccines were the first to kick off. From the initial 329 yuan per dose, prices fell all the way to 86 yuan per dose, and then down to the nationwide centralized procurement ceiling price of 27.5 yuan per dose, dramatically compressing profit margins.

In short, both ends of today’s consumer healthcare vaccine track are undergoing systematic reassessment. Moreover, the nine-valent vaccines from companies such as Kang Le Wei Shi, ReGene Bio, and Walvax Bio have all entered Phase III trials. The blue ocean for nine-valent vaccines is about to turn into a red ocean, and the industry’s valuation logic has been completely overturned.

In 2022, the company’s revenue was as high as 11.185 billion yuan. However, affected by the price war and a downturn in market demand, in 2024 this figure fell to 2.245 billion yuan, and the stock price declined accordingly. As of now, the company’s market value is around 50 billion yuan.

According to its earnings forecast, the company expects that in 2025 its annual net profit attributable to owners of the parent company will be between -410 million yuan and -330 million yuan; net profit attributable to owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses will be between -660 million yuan and -530 million yuan.

All Listed Companies Seek a Way Out

No matter what, the beginning of the domestic substitution battle has been inventory backlog, which puts cash flow pressure on listed companies.

In 2024, during a telephone call, Merck & Co. judged that the domestic HPV vaccine channel would take a slow time to clear inventory. Therefore, it reduced the shipment volume of HPV vaccines to Zhifei Bio.

As of the third quarter of 2025, Wantai Bio and Zhifei Bio’s accounts receivable are 1.73 billion yuan and 12.81 billion yuan, respectively, while inventories are 830 million yuan and 2.025 billion yuan, respectively. In the same period, the two companies’ cash and cash equivalents are 2.34 billion yuan and 2.498 billion yuan, respectively, and their asset-liability ratios are both close to 40%.

Under such circumstances, listed companies have been accelerating changes. For example, Zhifei Bio plans to apply to a syndicate for a loan of more than 10 billion yuan. In 2025, it is expected to incur a loss in net profit attributable to shareholders of between 10.698 billion yuan and 13.726 billion yuan, mainly due to sales of products falling short of expectations, as well as making provisions for impairment related to some inventory, accounts receivable, and so on.

As for Walvax Bio, the changes are even more drastic. In March of this year, the company announced a planned private placement / share issuance (equity placement). The controlling shareholder will change to Beijing Tengyun Xinwo Biotechnology Partnership (Limited Partnership), and the actual controller will change to Huang Tao, ending the previous status of having no actual controller.

By contrast, while the company is promoting younger senior management and tackling the domestic substitution campaign, it is also deepening its cooperation with Xiamen University. The two parties’ cooperation began in the 1990s, starting from the diagnostic reagent field and gradually extending into vaccines. In fact, both of the listed HPV vaccines are developed with Xiamen University leading the work.

In March, the company announced that Chairman Qiu Zixin plans to reduce his holdings by up to 5 million shares. Based on the current stock price, the proceeds would be about 200 million yuan. The announcement states clearly that after the share reduction, Qiu Zixin will donate the funds to his alma mater, Xiamen University, and Xiamen No. 1 High School. According to available information, Qiu Zixin’s father is the head of the Department of Biology at Xiamen University.

Ultimately, the domestic substitution campaign in consumer vaccines takes place at a delicate timing point, forcing listed companies to make adjustments. Internally, the company promotes younger senior management and tightly binds itself to Xiamen University. Externally, Zhifei Bio seeks bank financing in an effort to get through the moment when cash flow comes under pressure. In any case, the battle is about to enter the deep-water phase. (Produced by Thinking Finance)