Zhang Yaoxi: The US-Iran situation remains volatile, but gold prices are still under pressure. The hope for a repeat of history and a continuation of the bull market persists.

March 27: On the trading day last Thursday (March 26): International gold retreated and closed lower, as the market still harbors doubts about the so-called US-Iran talks. US media reported that the United States is preparing for a “final strike.” Iran also claimed that the US’s negotiating stance is deceptive. Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike have resurfaced, pushing oil prices and the dollar to regain upward momentum, while suppressing gold prices, which continued to be pressured after encountering resistance on Wednesday. However, the trend remains above the rebound momentum established on Monday. If it continues to decline, watch for support at the lower Bollinger Band or the 200-day moving average, which still presents another bullish entry opportunity. If it breaks through the resistance of the 100-day moving average on Wednesday, it will further aim for the $5000 threshold.

In terms of specific movements, gold opened in the Asian market at $4511.07 per ounce, initially recording an intraday high of $4543.79, before falling. It oscillated above $4415 during the European and early US sessions, and after a brief rebound around 10 PM in the US session, it fell again, reaching an intraday low of $4351.40. It eventually stopped the decline and rebounded, closing at $4377.88, with a daily range of $192.75, closing down $133.19, a decrease of 2.95%.

Looking ahead to today, Friday (March 27): International gold opened with a rebound after stopping the decline. The dollar index and crude oil trends saw a slowdown in bullish momentum in the morning. Trump’s post indicated that he would once again postpone the timing of strikes on Iranian energy facilities, which provided some support to gold prices, yet gold remains under pressure. Before breaking the resistance of $4700, the trend is still mainly in a phase of oscillation and adjustment.

During the day, attention will be on the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for March and the final value of the one-year inflation expectation for March in the US. The former leans towards being favorable for gold prices, but based on value expectations, the support is limited. The latter’s expected value has significantly risen, indicating a warming inflation, which would suppress gold prices; therefore, gold prices still face pressure during the US session.

Subsequently, attention will also be on speeches by the 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin, and the 2027 FOMC voting member, San Francisco Fed President Daly, who will give an opening address at a conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy. The 2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, will speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy. Based on previous speeches, they leaned towards dovish remarks, which would be favorable for gold prices, thus the expected trend in the evening session leans towards oscillation. If the data and speeches overall favor gold prices, it will bolster a rebound; conversely, if they meet expectations, gold prices may oscillate or fall again.

Fundamentally, although Trump has repeatedly indicated a delay in attacks and a good negotiation, these are all one-sided. Iran consistently denies that any negotiations have taken place and claims that Trump’s retreat is due to threats from Iran to attack multiple power generation facilities in the region. The strong divergence in news has not calmed the market but instead increased uncertainty. This makes it difficult for the rebound momentum in gold prices to continue, and the risk of further downward adjustment remains.

In the short term, despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the market is currently dominated by concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the dollar’s movements, temporarily overlooking safe-haven demand. Therefore, until a peace agreement is reached regarding the geopolitical situation, gold prices can only maintain wide-ranging oscillation. However, after an agreement is reached, gold prices will once again return to safe-haven demand and interest rate cut prospects, potentially rising to new highs.

Comparing the price surges from 2020 to 2022 and the doubling of oil prices from July 2007 to August 2008, gold prices subsequently welcomed a bull market. Therefore, the current rise in oil prices is also creating opportunities for a bull market in the second half of this year or next year. Thus, whether this wave of decline in gold prices is a trend reversal or a mid-correction in a larger upward cycle, I personally lean towards the latter.

Technically, on the monthly chart, gold prices have shown continued weakness this month, once recovering the gains of the previous three months, indicating a tendency to reverse the bull market. However, it has not yet substantially broken the previous upward trend line support. If this month’s closing is above this level, the market will lean towards sustained oscillation and adjustment, followed by another upward climb. Conversely, there remains a risk of probing new lows.

On the weekly chart, gold prices have maintained a bottom-reversal bullish pattern after further declines this week. If this pattern is sustained through the week, a rebound reaching the $4800 or $5000 level is expected next week.

On the daily chart, gold prices fell yesterday, continuing the pressure from Wednesday’s resistance. Bullish momentum failed to break through the 100-day moving average, while facing pressure from the 5-10 day short-term moving averages. The likelihood of oscillation or another decline is greater in future trends. There is an expectation of testing the $4300 or $4200 thresholds again during the day. Above, continue to monitor the pressure from the 100-day moving average.

Specific real-time trading guidance during the day will focus on actual position information.

Initial thoughts for trading levels today, with specific entry and exit points based on actual positions:

Gold: Watch for support around $4320 or $4240; resistance around $4445 or $4520.

Silver: Watch for support around $66.10 or $64.10; resistance around $69.75 or $71.90.

 Sina cooperative large platform futures account opening, safe, fast, and guaranteed