Top-tier luxury homes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen valued above 30 million yuan, with transaction growth exceeding 100%, surpassing Beijing and Shanghai

Reporter|Chen Ronghao

Editor|Cheng Peng, Liao Dan, Du Hengfeng Proofreader|Duan Lian

As the first quarter of 2026 approaches its end, the luxury housing market in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen is undergoing a significant reshuffling, with market differentiation becoming increasingly evident.

According to CRIC data, as of March 22, the number of online signed transactions for high-end residences priced over 30 million yuan in first-tier cities has increased by 14% year-on-year, creating an independent market trend against the current; however, transactions for residential properties priced over 10 million yuan (excluding serviced apartments) have decreased by 37% year-on-year, showing a stark contrast between the mid-to-high-end and top luxury markets.

Among them, the luxury housing markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have experienced explosive growth, with both cities’ transaction growth rates exceeding 100%, significantly outpacing Beijing and Shanghai. As of March 22, Shenzhen recorded 12 transactions of luxury homes priced at over 100 million yuan, nearing the total of 13 transactions for the entire previous year; Guangzhou saw the emergence of a top luxury property priced at 28,000 yuan/㎡, with a total price of 187 million yuan, setting a near two-year record for the unit price of new top luxury homes in Guangzhou.

Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s luxury transaction growth exceeds 100%

Surpassing Beijing and Shanghai

A reporter from the Daily Economic News noted that since the beginning of the year, the luxury housing market in first-tier cities has also shown significant differentiation. Specifically, transactions for high-end residences priced at around 10 million yuan have cooled, while the top luxury market priced over 30 million yuan has risen against the trend, with substantial gaps in transaction growth rates between cities.

CRIC data shows that as of March 22, a total of 3,044 transactions for residential properties priced over 10 million yuan were completed in the four first-tier cities, a decrease of about 37% compared to the same period in 2025.

However, when the price threshold is raised to 30 million yuan, the market trend reverses directly, with a total of 548 high-end residences in the four first-tier cities sold in this price range, an increase of 14% year-on-year, marking it as one of the few growth segments in the real estate market.

In terms of city performance, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have become the absolute leaders, with transaction growth rates both exceeding 100%, significantly surpassing Beijing and Shanghai.

Shenzhen’s performance has been the most remarkable, with a cumulative transaction of 168 luxury homes priced over 30 million yuan as of March 22, a year-on-year increase of 154.55%; daily average transactions stand at 2.07 units, a 132.6% increase from the previous quarter’s daily average of 0.89 units. Guangzhou follows closely, with a cumulative transaction of 73 units as of March 20, a year-on-year increase of 128.13%, and a daily average transaction of 0.90 units, achieving a doubling of sales compared to the previous quarter.

Shanghai remains the “ballast” for total transactions of luxury homes priced over 30 million yuan, ranking first with 229 units sold, but due to supply contraction and last year’s high base, it has seen a year-on-year decline of 27.99%, with daily average transactions down 28.9% from the previous quarter, indicating weakened growth momentum. Beijing recorded 78 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 20%, but with daily average transactions of less than one unit, its growth strength is far less than that of Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

The transaction pattern for luxury homes priced over 100 million yuan further reflects the strength of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as both cities have directly surpassed Beijing and Shanghai in this price segment. As of March 22, Shenzhen had 12 transactions of luxury homes priced over 100 million yuan, with 10 units from the CITIC City Development Xinyue Bay and 2 units from the Houhai Yungxi Garden, where the record average price of CITIC City Development Xinyue Bay reached 24.4 thousand yuan/㎡, setting a new high for average prices of luxury homes in Shenzhen in recent years.

CRIC analysis indicates that as of March 20, Guangzhou had 7 transactions of luxury homes priced over 100 million yuan, with 5 units coming from Poly Yuexi Bay. A unit in this project with a unit price of 28 thousand yuan/㎡ and a total price of 187 million yuan has not yet been included in the online signing but is expected to further boost Guangzhou’s luxury home transaction data.

From a market perspective, the performance of leading real estate firms in Guangzhou in the first quarter has been quite prominent. On March 26, a reporter learned from insiders at Poly Developments that several high-end residential projects in the “Zhujiang New Town - Machang” area have recently garnered considerable attention, reigniting interest in the “Golden Triangle” of Zhujiang New Town.

“Since March, Poly Tianyi has shown strong market performance, with a notable little spring effect, accumulating over 650 visits, achieving a single-day transaction of 10 units and a weekly transaction of 20 units, with a total transaction amount exceeding 500 million yuan to date,” the Poly Tianyi project team revealed to the reporter.

Guangzhou luxury housing Poly Tianyi project site. Image source: Interviewee provided.

“The increase in luxury transactions (sales) has at least a positive significance for price stability in the short term, of course, the effect depends on whether it can promote the supply side to upgrade in product quality, supporting facilities, and create quality housing while stimulating demand,” said Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center.

However, Li Yujia also mentioned that due to the niche nature of the luxury market, both the new and second-hand housing markets are currently dominated by low total price transactions, limiting the overall driving effect of luxury transactions on the real estate market, necessitating cautious consideration.

Concentration of luxury supply in Guangzhou and Shenzhen

The ability of Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s luxury markets to achieve growth rates exceeding 100% and lead first-tier cities is somewhat related to the concentrated supply of luxury properties in both cities.

A reporter has found that by the end of 2025, the Shenzhen luxury market had already seen a supply explosion, with four benchmark projects: Houhai Yungxi Garden, CITIC City Development Xinyue Bay, Houhai China Merchants Xi, and Liantai Super Total Bay collectively offering 668 units, with a total value of hundreds of billions of yuan.

CRIC data indicates that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the supply area of luxury homes priced over 30 million yuan in Shenzhen increased by 1.3 times year-on-year, and as of March 22, 2026, the supply in this price segment approached 50,000 square meters, whereas there was no supply during the same period last year, with a large amount of newly added supply gradually converting into online signed transactions in the first quarter.

“Looking back at the past transaction conditions in the luxury market, a similar trend was also evident in 2024, when the total transactions for luxury homes priced over 30 million yuan in 30 key cities increased by 65% year-on-year, reflecting the characteristic of ‘the more expensive, the more sold’. This trend continues into 2026, with high-net-worth individuals consistently moving up the property total price segment,” the CRIC Deep Consulting and Puru Research Center analyzed for the reporter on the morning of March 26.

Compared to the acceleration in Shenzhen’s luxury market at the end of last year, Guangzhou’s luxury market supply pace picked up in late March. According to Puru’s monitoring of data in the Guangzhou-Foshan region, since late March, the pace of obtaining certificates for new projects in Guangzhou has significantly accelerated, with about 28 popular on-sale projects expected to be launched in March.

It is worth mentioning that the luxury projects entering the market in Guangzhou are mostly located in core areas of the city center.

For example, Houhai Yungxi Garden is located in Shenzhen’s traditional luxury housing area, just about 400 meters from Shenzhen Bay No. 1. This site was won by a joint venture of China Resources and China Overseas for 18.512 billion yuan after 295 bidding rounds, with a premium rate of 46.31% and a floor price exceeding 70,000 yuan/㎡. During the second launch on March 22, the 216㎡ units and 408㎡ billion-level units sold out immediately. In four months, the sales amount exceeded 23.9 billion yuan.

In Guangzhou, the Machang plot was sold for 23.604 billion yuan in February 2026, with a premium rate of 26.6% and a floor price exceeding 80,000 yuan/㎡, which also stimulated a revival of the second-hand luxury housing market in Zhujiang New Town, with rising reluctance among owners to sell.

According to data released by the Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research and Development Department in early March this year, the second-hand luxury housing market in Zhujiang New Town has shown a consecutive eight-week trend of “volume and price rising,” with 83 transactions in January. Other data indicates that February, traditionally a low season, also saw second-hand online signed transactions reach 60 units in the Zhujiang New Town area.

“After the sale of the Machang plot, luxury homeowners in the Zhujiang New Town area have clearly become more reluctant to sell,” a real estate agent from Zhujiang New Town in Guangzhou told the reporter on the afternoon of March 26, noting that after the auction of the Machang plot, everyone estimates the break-even selling price for the plot to be around 160,000 yuan/㎡, effectively setting a “floor price” for the core area of Zhujiang New Town. However, the transaction prices of surrounding second-hand top luxury homes (such as Qiaoxin Huiyuetai and Kaixuan New World) generally range from 170,000 to 300,000 yuan/㎡, highlighting a competitive advantage in terms of cost-effectiveness compared to the “flour price” (usually referring to land acquisition costs).