On Saturday, only four ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the Iran corridor, including two LPG ships heading to India.

The Middle East conflict has entered its second month, and the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with the number of transiting vessels at only a tiny fraction of pre-war levels. At the same time, Iran is gradually strengthening its grip on this globally critical energy corridor.

According to ship-tracking data compiled by the media, on Saturday, March 28, only four vessels were observed leaving the Persian Gulf. All of them transited along the northern route on the Iranian side of the coastline, passing through the narrow waterway between Larak Island and Qeshm Island. Their destinations were, respectively, India and Pakistan.

The above developments indicate the existence of an officially recognized route. Tehran is further tightening its control over the strait. Iran’s parliament is currently reviewing a draft bill proposing to levy fees on ships seeking safe passage.

According to China Central Television (CCTV) News, on March 28, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar said that the Iranian government has agreed to allow an additional 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz; going forward, two vessels will pass through the strait each day.

Despite Iran showing some flexibility in seeking transit arrangements with multiple countries and achieving certain breakthroughs on the diplomatic front, the overall volume of passage has yet to show any clear rebound. While the above progress carries a signal for the market, the actual extent of resumption of shipping remains limited.

Transit volume has shrunk to an extreme level; the northern route is the only visible passage

According to media ship-tracking data, on the morning of March 28, two LPG vessels (liquefied petroleum gas tankers) bound for India left the Persian Gulf. In addition, two bulk carriers were also observed transiting through the waters, bound for Pakistan and India, respectively. All of the above vessels transited along the northbound route between Larak Island and Qeshm Island. No transiting vessels headed into port were observed on that morning. On Friday, in the inbound direction, only one Iranian tanker and one bulk carrier bound for an Iranian port completed transiting as well, also via the northern route.

The media noted that the persistent electronic interference in the region is affecting the accuracy of ship-tracking systems. Some vessels proactively shut down their AIS transponders in high-risk waters, further weakening the timeliness and reliability of the data. Since ships can navigate without sending location signals, the actual number of transits may be higher than the currently visible figures, and the related data may be revised upward as delayed signals arrive.

According to Tankertrackers.com data, in the 23 days before March, crude oil tankers associated with Iran continued transiting through the Strait of Hormuz while shutting down transponders, with an average daily flow of about 1.6 million barrels.

Diplomatic brokering achieves a breakthrough, but comprehensive recovery remains a long road ahead

Iran’s parliament is drafting a bill to impose transit fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, further strengthening its sovereignty claims over this strategic waterway.

On the diplomatic front, multiple countries have sought bilateral transit arrangements with Iran. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar said Iran agreed to allow an additional 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels and establish a normalized daily transit mechanism of two vessels per day, adding that this is an “active and constructive posture,” helping to promote regional stability. Thailand and Malaysia had also previously announced similar assurances.

However, based on overall transit data, the above bilateral arrangements have not yet brought about any substantive recovery in strait shipping. Transit conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain far below normal pre-war levels.

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