Opinion: The Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, and oil prices may quickly fall back below $100.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Wan Zhe, a professor and economics expert at Beijing Normal University, stated that historically, the duration and magnitude of oil price increases triggered by Middle Eastern conflicts depend on the development of the geopolitical situation. Current trends suggest that the scale of supply shocks may exceed previous instances. The supply gap caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could account for 15% to 20% of global supply. Furthermore, geopolitical uncertainty is higher, and the risk of conflict spillover is still escalating, with the potential for a broader conflict in the Middle East. Market panic is stronger than that seen during historical localized wars. Regarding future oil prices, if the conflict maintains its current intensity, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the Houthis continue to conduct raids without fully blocking the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, along with no significant diplomatic breakthroughs, prices should remain above $100. If the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, both core channels are interrupted simultaneously, and the conflict expands to more countries, prices will undoubtedly continue to rise. If a significant diplomatic breakthrough occurs and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices may quickly fall back below $100. (CCTV)