Polymarket "Probability of invading Iran before March 31 in the US" drops to 11%, down 6% in 24 hours

SmartContractAuditor · 2026-03-29T00:56:26+00:00

Polymarket's prediction regarding the U.S. invasion of Iran shows that the probability of invasion drops to 11% before March 31, and rises to 62% before April 30. The Pentagon is preparing ground operations over the coming weeks, but it may not be a full-scale invasion; it could be a targeted raid against specific objectives. It is still uncertain whether Trump will approve.

SmartContractAuditor

2026-03-29 00:56:26

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Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket’s “U.S. invading Iran before March 31” has dropped to 11%, down 6% in 24 hours; the probability of “U.S. invading Iran before April 30” currently stands at 62%, up 3% in 24 hours, and the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $42.6 million.

Today, U.S. officials stated that the Pentagon is preparing for ground operations in Iran that could last for weeks, as thousands of U.S. soldiers and Marines arrive in the Middle East. If President Trump chooses to escalate the war, this could lead to a dangerous new phase of conflict. Officials indicated that any potential ground operations would not be a full-scale invasion but might involve coordinated raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry units. Such missions could expose U.S. personnel to a range of threats, including Iranian drones and missiles, ground fire, and improvised explosive devices. As of Saturday, it remains unclear whether Trump will approve or veto all or part of the Pentagon’s plans.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

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