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Market watching insights, full of gains!
Friday Market Review:[TaoGuba]
The early-session call auction started at 9:15 AM. Guangxi Energy had the largest single order in its one-word limit-up, and Jincuo Electric also hit a one-word limit-up. The Hua Dian Liao Neng that was抢跑 at the call auction at the end of yesterday opened at its floor and then got a relatively small number of buy orders; it was within expectations. From 9:20 AM, the limit-down order was withdrawn, and the call auction finished at 9:25 AM. Guangxi Energy’s large single-order one-word limit-up set the tone! Xineng Taishan grabbed 8.38%, Hua Dian Liao Neng was抢到 3.94%, ShaoNeng Co., Ltd.抢到 3.1%, and there basically wasn’t any major negative feedback among other power-related stocks—most opened at within -5%. Only Liaoning Energy had a limit-down buy order on the upper side, but it was also eaten up. The other one was Orion Energy in computing power (算力), which抢到了 -3.8%. That means there’s a possibility that today’s “compute for power” sector (电) could see a repair. Orion Energy was also a stock I planned to buy on a low pullback (低吸). In the end I didn’t buy because I was greedy for a lower price, which is a pity. The reason I thought it could go up is that power stocks started showing large divergence yesterday; money would rotate (轮动). A rotation market is suitable for low pullbacks. The computing-power stock that was strong the day before yesterday was weak yesterday, so today it has a chance to rotate back. And today it did rotate—although I still didn’t execute, which is a need-to-improve plan and I shouldn’t have missed it.
After the open, after a brief sharp dip (急刹), most stocks in the major sectors started pushing higher. With no limit-down stocks, sentiment began to improve. At this point, you should consider buying on a low pullback (低吸) the stocks that were relatively strong yesterday and have a low point today. The plan was to low-pullback Orion Energy, but it didn’t happen—so I need to reflect. Orion Energy successfully hit the upside after a long leg (大长腿) climbing onto the limit-up board. Even though it was a “bad board” for a day (烂板), it kept bouncing near the limit-up price, which is still very strong—I’m giving it a higher rating. Guangxi Energy sealed in one-word limit-up. After three one-word limit-ups from Xineng Taishan, today it continued to instant-limit-up (秒板) without increasing volume. Jincuo Electric followed with a low-volume limit-up, but the buy order was not stable and not strong enough. At 9:45 AM, Dongfang Xineng’s long-leg move came up from underwater and strongly sealed the board. Jincuo Electric then immediately炸板 and plunged.
Weak follow-through—once it failed to break through and hold above the opening price, it was still topped up afterward. At that point it was already weak. Jincuo’s position was very awkward: it was caught in the middle—above it there was Xineng Taishan pressing down, and because Xineng Taishan was also stronger than Guangxi Energy, and below it it was terrified open by Dongfang Xineng sealing the board, which caused it to burst open. Although it did reach a limit-up intraday by the close, the low-position had already lost it. On Monday, it would be eliminated. Dongfang Xineng’s long-leg into limit-up is very meaningful. In the sector, Guangxi Energy’s one-word limit-up at the low end set the tone. Then Dongfang’s反包上板 (a turnaround re-limit-up) showcased the sector’s board strength and showed a certain degree of driving effect. Throughout the day there was no order spill (no missed orders / no “漏单”). The strong-mentality expectation (人气) was built—so I’m giving it a higher rating.
Starting at 2:00 PM, Hua Dian Liao Neng had a small wave of dips. Then Ynen Energy Holding (豫能控股) began to attract funds and push up, attempting to hold up Hua Dian Liao Neng during the jump.
Ynen Energy Holding got pulled up all the way close to the涨停 at 14:27. At this time, Ningbo Energy, which had come up earlier this morning, kept strongly震荡 in the range of over 4%. Seeing that Ynen might be about to go for the board, it instantly 秒拉 to seal the board, helping Ynen to封板. If Ningbo Energy had kept oscillating around 4% into the close, there would have been a possibility of Monday seeing a反包上板. But today Ynen was too eager to declare itself, so Ningbo had to go up earlier to seal. In my view, whether it’s Ynen or Ningbo, their board-ups have “overdrawn” Monday’s expectations. Their sealing up didn’t drive the sector; instead, it had an adverse effect on Monday’s sector performance. Ningbo followed and went up with Ynen—so in my view it’s only suitable for arbitrage (套利). The probability that they can keep sealing boards on Monday is not high. Ynen, as the first power-sector “big brother” (电力的大哥), has already become a vehicle for the sector’s sentiment at this stage. The two-headed pattern (double-top logic) is already finished. At this point, how likely is it to pull and go for another round of board? Obviously it’s very difficult. It’s more like today’s board attempt is attracting late buyers (接盘者). Anyone who believes Ynen can go another round is essentially a potential late buyer.
Summary: The power sector hasn’t finished. External turmoil can’t end quickly. Internally, there’s nothing new coming out for now. So power stocks will continue to run. This wave ends as Hua Dian Liao Neng’s main leg (主升) is over, and then it will be high-level consolidation. The most likely way within the sector is for some “grouping” (抱团) by individuals and local rotations. You need to focus more on the core and catch the rotation timing, doing follow-up gains (补涨) and doing grouping—don’t chase mid-road (半路追高). Either buy on a low pullback, or go for the board. Looking at Friday’s market, among the stocks where money chose the “core follow-up strength” (补涨强度), it was Guangxi Energy; Jincuo’s probability is not high. Below that, the strongest follow-up strength (反包强度) is Dongfang Xineng—it could develop into a new “grouping board” (新抱团).
Finally, investing involves caution! The above is only for personal record-keeping and review.