The mysterious account that accurately bet on the US-Iran war outbreak is now heavily betting on a "ceasefire next week."

Source: Huitong Network

The same Polymarket trader who accurately predicted the start of the U.S.-Iran military conflict is now making significant bets that the U.S. and Iran will reach a ceasefire agreement next week. On Monday (March 23), U.S. President Trump stated on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had a “very good and productive dialogue” regarding the end of the Middle East war and announced a five-day pause on strikes against Iran’s power facilities, a statement that quickly boosted the prices of related contracts in the prediction market.

The Polymarket “US x Iran cease-fire” market has seen a trading volume exceeding $38.8 million, with the current probability of a ceasefire by March 31 estimated at about 12%-19%, and about 33% by April 15. Some early heavy-position accounts have already realized significant unrealized gains following Trump’s announcement.

Details of Mysterious Trader Bets

Ten recently opened accounts had cumulatively bet about $160,000 in the ceasefire market before Trump made his public statement. If a ceasefire is reached by the end of March, these accounts could potentially earn over $1 million. Following Trump’s post, the unrealized gains from these positions have increased by over $300,000.

Among them, the most notable account, “NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS,” was opened at the end of February, with the first trade being a $7,600 bet on U.S. military strikes against Iran before February 28, and the second being an $11,283 bet on strikes before March 1, which accurately hit and yielded over $85,000 in profit. Currently, the account has also bet $8,005 on a ceasefire by March 31, and $15,614 on a ceasefire by April 15, with both positions already showing a profit of over $30,000.

This account has almost exclusively bet on the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the scale, timing, and historical accuracy of its bets have sparked widespread speculation in the market: whether it is from an “informed person” with insider knowledge of U.S.-Iranian politics or diplomacy.

Trump’s Latest Statement

Trump stated on Truth Social that both the U.S. and Iran had a “very good and productive dialogue” and directed relevant departments to pause military strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days.

He emphasized that dialogue would continue this week and expressed optimism about reaching a comprehensive resolution to the Middle Eastern hostilities. However, Iranian officials subsequently denied any substantive negotiations, claiming Trump’s statements were untrue. This contradictory statement further heightened market volatility and caused significant fluctuations in contract prices on prediction platforms.

Insider Trading Controversy and Platform New Rules

Prediction market platforms have long faced accusations of insider trading. Previously, Polymarket had an instance where traders profited over $400,000 using insider information in the Venezuela-related market. Competing platform Kalshi recently publicly banned two users suspected of insider trading.

On Monday, Polymarket announced updated insider trading rules, clearly prohibiting the use of stolen confidential information, illegal trading tips, and users who have the ability to influence event outcomes from placing bets. Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar stated, “Market prosperity relies on clear rules, and these enhanced measures clarify expectations for all participants.” The new rules also apply to its DeFi platform and the U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC.

Analysts believe this move may signal that Polymarket will follow Kalshi’s example and publicly investigate suspicious accounts.

Market Outlook and Risks

In the short term, the prospects for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire remain highly uncertain. The mainstream view on Polymarket indicates that the probability of a formal ceasefire by the end of March is low (approximately 12-19%), but it rises to around 33% before April 15, with a higher probability of achieving a ceasefire over the year.

If Trump’s “productive dialogue” with Iran makes substantial progress, related contracts will appreciate significantly; conversely, if Iran maintains a hardline stance or if conflicts escalate, early heavy-position accounts may face significant losses.

While the platform strengthens compliance, regulatory bodies and Congress are also intensifying scrutiny of prediction markets. Any insider trading investigation results could have far-reaching effects on market confidence and trading volume. Investors need to be cautious about the drastic impacts of geopolitical events on contract prices and participate judiciously in conjunction with official diplomatic developments.

Editor’s Summary

The same Polymarket trader who accurately bet on the outbreak of the Iranian conflict has shifted to betting on a ceasefire next week, highlighting the sensitivity of the prediction market in capturing geopolitical turning points in light of Trump’s “productive dialogue” statement. However, the concentrated betting and historical accuracy of accounts have raised suspicions of insider trading. Polymarket’s timely update of rules shows that the platform is striving to enhance transparency.

Overall, this event reflects the double-edged sword nature of prediction markets in an environment of information asymmetry: they can efficiently aggregate wisdom but are also susceptible to potential insider influences. The ultimate prospects for a ceasefire still depend on the genuine negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, rather than market bets.