Arthur Hayes Explains How Real Trading Pushes HYPE to $150

One of the most influential crypto market analysts, Arthur Hayes, comments on the evolution of decentralized finance, drawing significant investor attention. In a recent interview with CoinDesk, he highlighted a key point: Hyperliquid stands out among competitors not because of artificially inflated volumes, but due to genuine trader demand. This observation has shifted Hayes’s approach to evaluating the platform and its growth potential.

Real Demand Instead of Artificial Incentives

Hayes previously closed his position in the HYPE token at around $50–$55, fearing token unlock pressures. However, his outlook changed when Hyperliquid’s team decided to refrain from mass selling monthly allocations. Currently, the token trades at $37.78, down 0.52% in the last 24 hours, with a market cap of $9.01 billion.

Hayes considers the key indicator of the platform’s health to be the ratio of trading volume to open interest. This metric distinguishes Hyperliquid from many competing DEXs that rely on reward programs to inflate activity. According to him, Hyperliquid exhibits the lowest ratio among major perpetual platforms, indicating more “genuine” trading activity.

New Opportunities for Retail Traders

The platform attracts traders by providing access to assets unavailable on traditional exchanges. The HIP-3 system allows trading oil, stock indices, and other assets 24/7 directly on the blockchain using stablecoins.

Retail investors benefit from significantly different conditions: leverage of 10x–20x instead of the typical 2x–3x on traditional brokerages. Geopolitical events over weekends, when regular markets are closed, push traders to seek alternatives—and Hyperliquid becomes such a solution.

Moreover, the platform offers the lowest slippage percentage for large Bitcoin contract trades ranging from $100,000 to $10 million. This makes it especially attractive to institutional and advanced retail operators.

Competitive Risks and Vulnerabilities

Hayes admits there are factors that could undermine his bullish outlook. If the P/E ratio of HYPE sharply increases amid a more bullish market sentiment, he would reconsider his position. Additionally, the platform is theoretically vulnerable to competitors offering lower fees, which could capture a significant portion of its approximately 70% market share in perpetual DEX revenue.

Maintaining high fee revenues—around $1 billion annually based on 30-day data—and the team’s cautious token distribution remain critical for preserving the bullish outlook.

Broader Perspective: Privacy and Prediction Markets

Beyond HYPE, Hayes points to the emerging segment of privacy-focused crypto projects. He believes Zcash (ZEC), currently trading at $230.82, could benefit from growing concerns over blockchain monitoring and transaction analysis via AI.

According to Hayes, Zcash’s cryptographic updates and privacy model make it a more attractive choice compared to alternatives like Monero.

At the same time, a new industry trend is developing: the launch of the venture fund 5c© Capital, focused on investing in prediction market companies. Supported by leaders of Polymarket and Kalshi, the fund aims to raise up to $35 million and support around 20 startups over two years, focusing on infrastructure, data tools, liquidity provision, and compliance systems.

Aggressive Bitcoin Forecast

Despite previous missed targets, Hayes reaffirmed his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of the year. With the current price at $70,750, this target implies a potential increase of more than 3.5 times, reflecting his strong bullish stance.

Hayes’s conclusions are based on observing the real economy of digital assets: where genuine demand and utility exist, sustainable markets emerge. Hyperliquid, in his view, demonstrates exactly this kind of dynamic.