Global oil prices drop below $100 a barrel after Trump delays strikes on Iranian power plants. Why further declines may be limited.

By Isabel Wang and Myra P. Saefong

 Brent crude may not return to the $60- to $70-per-barrel range because energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will take time to come back online 

 President Donald Trump said he has postponed threatened strikes on Iranian power plants. 

 Oil prices slid around 10% on Monday after President Donald Trump said he had postponed threatened strikes on Iranian power plants in the wake of "productive conversations" between the U.S. and Iran to end their war. 

 Brent crude oil for May delivery (BRN00) (BRNK26) on Monday was off 10.9%, to settle at $99.94, its lowest level since March 11. The global oil benchmark also booked its largest one-day percentage decline since March 10, according to Dow Jones Market Data. 

 West Texas Intermediate futures (CL.1) (CLK26) for May delivery were off 10.3% to $88.13 a barrel, according to FactSet data. 

 The moves come after Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social early Monday morning that the U.S. and Iran had "very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution" of the hostilities between the two countries, just over three weeks after the conflict began. 

 The president added that all military strikes on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure would be postponed for five days, "subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions." 

 Trump saying the U.S. is not going to attack Iran's power plans is not the same as saying Israel is not going to attack them - and there were some reports Monday that Israel has actually doubled its attack intensity toward Iran, said Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets. 

 Given the contradictory news headlines, Aslam told MarketWatch that he's "simply not going to sell oil here - full stop." 

 Trump had threatened more attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure over the weekend. In response, the speaker of Iran's parliament warned of retaliatory strikes across the region. 

 On Monday, Trump also pushed back against Iranian media reports that there had been no such talks. The president told Fox Business Network that he was not sure what Iranian media was talking about, and that there had been discussions last night and could be a deal with Iran in five days or sooner. 

 See: Drivers paying nearly $4 a gallon for gas see hope in falling oil prices 

 Will oil prices decline further from here? 

 To be sure, oil dipping below $100 a barrel is certainly welcome news for the markets and consumers concerned about gas prices topping $4 per gallon. The key question now is how long oil can stay below this level, and whether it could fall even further. 

 "Trump's comment is the only thing driving markets," said Michael Lynch, president at Strategic Energy & Economic Research. "It's not clear what talks are occurring, but he seems to be implying that he wants a deal." 

 But if there are no actual negotiations currently being held between the U.S. and Iran as Trump says, then oil prices are likely to quickly move back up and over $100, Lynch told MarketWatch on Monday. 

 That's why a market recovery may not come easily this time, even as Trump looks to back down from his aggressive stance on Iran. Even if there is progress to end the Middle East conflict, oil prices may not return to the $60- to $70-per-barrel range for Brent, because energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will take time to "come back on board," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. 

 U.S. stocks were surging on Monday, with all three major indexes on track for gains of at least 1.4%, though they remain far from recouping their losses from the past month. 

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA has dropped by a total of 8.2% over the past four weeks, while the S&P 500 SPX was off 5.8% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has slumped 5.4% during the same four-week period, according to FactSet data. 

 Nora Redmond contributed. 

 -Isabel Wang -Myra P. Saefong 

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03-23-26 1545ET

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