Oil Wars in Iran: No Major Oil Price Surge

The oil market continues to focus on the expected repercussions of Middle East tensions. However, according to financial analysts, the potential escalation will not cause a significant surge in global crude prices. Discussions about possible attacks create volatility, but experts’ true understanding is different—the actual risk remains uncertain.

The Market’s Real Concern: Where Is Attention Focused?

The biggest misconception isn’t about simple military action but about concrete infrastructure. If both sides respond to energy facilities or if tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz are closed, that would truly change the game. So far, neither has happened. Despite fears of attacks on oil fields, refineries, and export terminals in the region, no concrete action has been taken against oil infrastructure. The same applies to Israel and the U.S. targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure—nothing has occurred yet.

How Will Oil Prices Reach? Expecting an Increase

Many traders are talking about a possible rise to $100 per barrel. That’s significant, but looking at history—$139 in 2022 after the Ukraine crisis and the record $147.50 in 2008—current projections are more conservative. The message is clear: even with changes, the Middle East will not cause a fundamental shift in global oil supply.

The medium-term outlook suggests prices will rise but with limits. Physical oil markets remain weak, indicating that supply is not easily disrupted. Conversely, financial markets are bullish—many traders are accumulating long positions, expecting prices to go up.

The Positioning of Oil Traders: Ready for Change

The trader landscape has shifted significantly. Last year, the 12-day Israel-U.S. military engagement against Iran caused a surge—many gambled on buying sprees that spiked oil prices. Now, bullish positions have reached one of the highest levels in ten years. This indicates that the oil trading community is more prepared for such crises.

Their preparedness reflects experience—they know how markets react in conflict situations, and most have already positioned themselves accordingly. In this setup, the potential for sudden price surges is lower, as market players have largely anticipated these scenarios.