Macro Pressure Impact: Short-term Bitcoin Holders Massively Liquidating Positions on Exchanges

After a week of relative stability, Bitcoin fluctuations are showing new signs of weakness. Over the past 24 hours, short-term holders (STH) transferred about 27,000 BTC to cryptocurrency exchanges, equivalent to nearly $1.92 billion at the current price of $71,060. This is the highest selling volume from this investor category since mid-January 2026, when a 36% drop followed. The price decline from the local high of $74,000 to $71,000 signals renewed selling pressure amid pessimistic macro forecasts and turbulent geopolitical conditions.

Why are short-term players massively exiting their positions?

The macro environment has significantly worsened due to the ongoing Middle East crisis, negatively affecting investor sentiment. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the realized price for STH is around $68,000, indicating substantial profit for this group of investors. Simultaneously, decreased market liquidity makes short-term owners more cautious about further developments.

Alongside the massive BTC sell-off, there is an outflow of capital from American spot Bitcoin ETFs. On March 5, these funds recorded a net cash outflow of about $228 million. At the same time, Bitcoin’s open interest decreased from $49.66 billion to approximately $45.26 billion, indicating traders are exiting long positions. These indicators suggest that macro-uncertainty and negative news are prompting even experienced traders to reconsider their strategies.

Technical picture: death cross and potential capitulation

On the three-day timeframe, Bitcoin recently formed a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA). According to trading analyst Ali Martinez, this is not the first time in the asset’s history that such a cross has led to a sharp decline in prices.

“Bitcoin recently formed a new death cross. If history repeats even partially, it could mark the beginning of the final phase of macro-cycle downturn,” Martinez said. This alignment of moving averages is traditionally considered a bearish signal in technical analysis, especially amid macro pessimism.

It’s worth noting that the 27,000 BTC transferred to exchanges by STH in the past 24 hours is among the highest volumes in the last two months. This behavior suggests that short-term traders expect further price declines in the medium term given the current macro dynamics.

Possible scenarios and macro divergence

Currently, the key resistance level remains at $94,000. If Bitcoin manages to break this level with momentum (potentially through short positions), a new macro bullish move could begin in the coming weeks and months, disrupting the current bearish trend.

However, in the near term, the macro scenario remains unfavorable. Geopolitical tensions, liquidity outflows, and technical weakness create a rather harsh environment for Bitcoin’s price action. Short-term traders are well aware of this, which is why they have accelerated profit-taking around $68,000, not waiting for further macro developments.