Amber Data Deep Dive: Bitcoin Expected to Challenge $180,000 New High in 2026

As a leading on-chain data analysis team, Amber has recently released a four-scenario forecast framework for Bitcoin’s future trend. Currently, BTC is trading near $70,990, showing a significant increase since the beginning of the year. Amber points out that although this week’s price has been highly volatile, briefly reaching $74,000 before falling back to the $68,000 range, these adjustments actually reflect market structural repair.

The Deep Logic of Market Recovery from Excessive Leverage

The large-scale liquidation event in October marked a watershed for the market. Prior to that turmoil, the Bitcoin market was flooded with excessive leverage—basis soared to unsustainable levels, carry trades flourished, and funding rates remained high. Especially when negative news about fiscal policy hit the market, this leveraged structure collapsed instantly.

Amber’s analysis shows that while painful, this liquidation cleared out a large amount of over-leverage and weak positions. After the liquidation, the market structure significantly improved: the basis returned to rational levels, funding rates stabilized, and order book depth recovered to pre-liquidation levels. In other words, Bitcoin is transitioning from a bubble-filled state to a healthier, more solid foundation.

However, this recovery remains fragile. Although the basic framework has improved, liquidity has not fully restored, and the previously attractive carry trades have lost appeal. The market currently lacks clear catalysts to drive a large upward move.

50% Probability: Consolidation Between $90,000 and $120,000

In Amber’s forecast framework, the most likely scenario (50% probability) is that Bitcoin enters a relatively calm “weathering the storm” phase. In this scenario, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $90,000 and $120,000 without a clear breakout, until a major macroeconomic catalyst appears.

Supporting indicators include: basis annualized yield stable at 8-10%, continuous net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, order book depth maintained at reasonable levels, and funding rates staying in positive territory. During this phase, the market will neither deteriorate significantly nor improve markedly, with bullish and bearish expectations repeatedly thwarted.

25% Probability: Bullish Breakout to $120,000-$180,000

Amber also offers a more optimistic forecast, with a 25% chance. In this bullish scenario, institutional capital and official recognition will generate strong positive feedback loops. Bitcoin could run within the $120,000 to $180,000 range.

Confirmation signals for this forecast include: weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeding $1 billion, basis annualized yield expanding above 15%, and HODL Wave data showing new clusters of holdings (indicating large inflows of new funds). These indicators point to the arrival of a robust upward cycle.

20% Probability: Bearish Warning to $60,000-$80,000

On the other hand, Amber provides a bearish scenario with a 20% probability. If macroeconomic conditions worsen beyond expectations, and global risk aversion increases, Bitcoin could undergo a deep correction within the $60,000 to $80,000 range.

Warning signs for this scenario include: weekly outflows from spot ETFs exceeding $1 billion, basis annualized yield dropping below 3%, large inflows into stablecoins (capital fleeing), and ETF holdings testing the $80,000 cost basis support.

5% Probability: High Volatility with No Clear Direction

Finally, Amber reserves a 5% chance for an extreme scenario—Bitcoin falling into a highly volatile, directionless state, repeatedly washing out between $75,000 and $110,000. In this scenario, funding rates would fluctuate wildly, holdings data would oscillate, ETF flows would be uncertain, and the market would be in complete hesitation.

Overall, Amber’s multi-scenario framework provides investors with a clear risk-reward assessment. While the most probable scenario is consolidation, the 25% bullish chance means Bitcoin still has the potential to reach new highs, especially with continued institutional inflows and sustained friendly policies.