East Meets West | Khamenei's "Biding Time" for 40 Years, Iran's Wars Leave America in a "Triple Dilemma" of Cannot Afford, Cannot Withdraw, Cannot Win

How does AI Hamaney use 40 years of patience to turn around Iran’s destiny?

China News Service Beijing, March 21 — Title: Hamaney’s 40 Years of “Patience and Concealment”: Iran’s War Traps the U.S. in a “Cannot Fight, Cannot Retreat, Cannot Win” Triple Dilemma

Author: Li Jianxing

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched an air strike, aiming for a quick victory, assassinating Hamaney, and forcing Iran to submit. Unexpectedly, after three weeks, the situation changed: Iran’s counterattack entered its 70th wave, U.S. bases in the Middle East were repeatedly attacked, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, international oil prices soared, and the U.S. found itself in a “cannot fight, cannot retreat, cannot win” triple dilemma, with its hegemonic face torn apart.

On March 9, at Revolution Square in Tehran, Iran, people gathered to express loyalty to the new Supreme Leader, Muqtada Hamaney. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Shadati

Iran’s ability to withstand the surprise attack by the U.S. and Israel, and to continue resisting even after several core leaders were assassinated, is not accidental. It is the inevitable result of Iran’s nearly forty years of “patience and concealment,” step-by-step planning, and building up strength—before Hamaney’s assassination attempt, Iran transformed the ruins left by the Iran-Iraq War into a core fortress of anti-American hegemony in the Middle East, or perhaps made the U.S. suffer the bitter fruit of overreach.

In 1989, Khomeini passed away. The Iran taken over by Hamaney (who served as Iran’s president for two terms from 1981 to 1989) was a mess left by the eight-year Iran-Iraq War: a devastated economy, impoverished people, a broken military, halted oil exports, and basic living needs unmet. At that time, the U.S. was at the peak of unipolar hegemony, dominating the Middle East, with aircraft carriers patrolling the Gulf and allies obediently following orders. Iran had almost no voice in the global landscape.

Hamaney faced only two choices: confront directly, risking a repeat of Iraq’s fate and turning Iran into a U.S. vassal; or compromise and retreat, which would betray the original spirit of the Islamic Revolution and render decades of struggle meaningless. He ultimately chose “patience and concealment,” trading time for space—avoiding rash action, stabilizing the foundation, accumulating strength, and waiting for the right moment to strike back.

On January 17, 2026, Hamaney delivered a speech in Tehran. (File photo) Xinhua News Agency

In the first decade of his leadership, Hamaney focused on domestic rebuilding. He integrated religious and secular forces, firmly controlled the Guardian Council, purged pro-American elements, and fostered a unified “anti-American independence” will across Iran; economically, he relied on the oil industry to recover gradually, promoted a “resistance economy” to reduce external dependence, improve people’s livelihoods, and strengthen public support for the revolution; militarily, he prioritized rebuilding the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an independent force outside the regular army, designed as a core for homeland defense and overseas infiltration, becoming the backbone of Iran’s power.

During these ten years, Iran did not provoke the U.S. but quietly regained strength from the ruins of war, laying a solid foundation for future strategic moves.

By 2000, the U.S. was mired in the Middle East counter-terrorism wars, distracted and unable to focus. Hamaney seized this strategic window to initiate the second phase: patient and covert deployment—building a regional anti-American network. He avoided direct confrontation with the U.S., instead supporting proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza, transforming these organizations into Iran’s “peripheral defenses” and “attack knives,” keeping the battlefield outside Iran’s borders.

Meanwhile, Iran advanced its nuclear program under the guise of “peaceful nuclear energy,” steadily accumulating key technologies and strategic deterrence capabilities. Taking advantage of U.S. preoccupations elsewhere, Iran rapidly expanded influence in Syria and Iraq, forming a “resistance front” across the Middle East. Over these fifteen years, Iran wove an invisible web in the region, causing U.S. allies to suffer attacks and military presence to be constrained, while Iran quietly built up military strength and regional influence.

In 2015, the Iran nuclear deal was signed, and U.S. sanctions gradually eased, giving Iran a breather. Hamaney decisively launched the third phase: consolidating strength and waiting for the right moment to strike. Iran’s economy quickly recovered, military spending increased, and asymmetric weapons like drones, hypersonic missiles, and ballistic missiles took shape, forming a “low-cost, high-kill” core combat capability.

Hamaney saw clearly that U.S. hegemony was already weakening—thanks to the Iraq quagmire, the failure to withdraw from Afghanistan, and domestic political divisions, making large-scale ground wars increasingly unlikely. After 2020, U.S. maximum pressure failed, and Iran began small-scale harassment of U.S. military bases, repeatedly testing the U.S. response and rhythm.

On February 28, 2026, the U.S.-Israel air strike began. Over three weeks, Iran did not engage in dogfights or carrier battles but used its expertise in asymmetric warfare to precisely strike U.S. vulnerabilities: saturating missile and drone attacks that hit 27 key U.S. bases in the Middle East, causing hundreds of casualties, repeatedly breaching Patriot and THAAD missile defenses, paralyzing front-line airports and logistics hubs; blocking the Strait of Hormuz, choking global energy supply, and incurring widespread resentment among U.S. allies; leveraging proxy networks like the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Syria to attack U.S. facilities, forcing the U.S. into a multi-front passive situation.

On April 30, 2019, Iranian soldiers patrolled the Strait of Hormuz. Photo by Ahmed Harabi Sasis (Ahmed Harabi Sasis)

The U.S. dilemma is fully evident in reality. The planned lightning war was completely thwarted, with the conflict escalating instead; economically, daily military expenditures neared $1 billion, and total costs over three weeks exceeded hundreds of billions, with the Pentagon requesting over $200 billion in additional war funding, compounded by rising oil prices and inflation, directly impacting U.S. economic recovery; politically, anti-war sentiment surged domestically, with polls showing over 60% opposition to expanding the conflict; diplomatically, U.S. hegemonic credibility further collapsed.

Hamaney’s forty years of “patience and concealment” is ultimately a survival wisdom for small or medium-sized nations under great power hegemony. The three-week conflict is just the beginning; Hamaney’s strategic deployment continues to unfold, and the backlash of U.S. hegemony has only just begun. (End)

(Expert profile: Li Jianxing, Vice President of the China Business Culture Research Association, former Party Secretary of the People’s Daily Overseas Edition, Second-Level Professor, National Cultural Master and one of the “Four Batches” of Talents.)