Interpreting the "15th Five-Year Plan" Outline | Exclusive Interview with Zhang Yuzhuo: Future Economic Growth Will See More Increments from Emerging Pillar Industries, Next-Generation Information Technology, New Materials, New Energy and Other Fields Are Expected to Become Emerging Pillar Industries First

On March 13th, the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China” (hereinafter referred to as the “Outline”) was publicly released.

In the section on “Cultivating and Strengthening Emerging and Future Industries,” the Outline proposes to strengthen the supply of core technologies, accelerate the development of application scenarios and ecological systems, cultivate more pillar and leading industries, and build new advantages for industrial development. It also makes specific deployments from three aspects: developing and expanding emerging industries, forward-looking layout of future industries, and improving the ecological environment for industrial innovation and development.

What signals are being sent from moving from “Strategic Emerging Industries” to “Emerging Pillar Industries”? Which industries are likely to become the first to grow into emerging pillar industries? How should we understand the “Demonstration Projects for Future Industry Development”? The proposal to explore new regulatory approaches such as “sandbox regulation” and “trigger-based regulation” mainly stems from what considerations?

In response to these questions, NBD (National Business Daily) interviewed Zhang Yuzhe, researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics and Technological Economics, National Development and Reform Commission.

Most future economic growth will come from emerging pillar industries

NBD: The Outline states that accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, new energy, new materials, intelligent connected new energy vehicles, robotics, biomedicine, high-end equipment, aerospace, etc., and building characteristic, complementary strategic emerging industry clusters suited to local conditions, will focus on cultivating a number of high-growth, high-tech, widely penetrating emerging pillar industries. Moving from “Strategic Emerging Industries” to “Emerging Pillar Industries,” what signals does this send?

Zhang Yuzhe: First, “strategic” indicates their importance; “emerging” suggests they are still in a potential development stage, not fully mature; while “emerging pillar” means they need to play a greater role.

From an industrial development perspective, I believe that while the added value of traditional industries can still be improved in quality, the room for quantity growth will become smaller, and development scale may face bottlenecks. In this context, future-oriented strategic emerging industries and future industries will gradually take on the main role, transforming into new emerging pillar industries. Previously, discussions focused on their “potential” and “technological strength”; in the future, the focus will shift to transforming potential into real strength. The technology itself remains unchanged; what changes is the shift from “growth potential” to “actual scale.”

NBD: For “strategic emerging industries” to become “emerging pillar industries,” what proportion of the overall industry should they reach?

Zhang Yuzhe: Generally, reaching 5% of GDP can be considered as a pillar industry. But “emerging pillar” emphasizes rapid growth during the development cycle, not full maturity. During this period, most of the incremental growth will come from these sectors. Traditional industries have large stock scales, making it difficult to drive structural change through incremental growth alone. When incremental growth leads to structural changes in the stock, this growth must be very fast and play a larger role. Becoming a pillar industry is a process that requires sustained effort; it cannot be achieved overnight.

NBD: Among these strategic emerging industries, which are likely to become the first emerging pillar industries?

Zhang Yuzhe: I believe that new-generation information technology, new materials, new energy, and high-end equipment are more likely to become emerging pillar industries first. The first three cover broader areas and have wider penetration; high-end equipment, to some extent, reflects the intelligence and high-end transformation of traditional industries, including stock upgrades. In contrast, industries like automobiles, robotics, and pharmaceuticals are more product-specific, and aerospace requires a longer development cycle.

On “walking and watching while regulating” new business forms

NBD: The Outline proposes establishing mechanisms for increased investment and risk sharing in future industries, organizing demonstration projects for future industry development, and exploring multiple technological routes, typical application scenarios, feasible business models, and market regulation rules. How should we understand the “Demonstration Projects for Future Industry Development”? What is the intention behind this?

Zhang Yuzhe: Future industries driven by technological innovation may become new engines and driving forces. Demonstration projects, from a practical perspective, are mostly government-organized showcases representing future directions and trends, which can lead and influence relevant industry sectors. However, the internal economic characteristics of future industries vary—market sizes differ, some are just starting, others are in rapid growth phases; technical complexity varies, and product and technology penetration rates differ. Therefore, differentiated practical guidance should be provided based on these features, using project-based approaches to promote resource allocation efficiency and effectiveness.

NBD: The Outline mentions establishing efficient and convenient access mechanisms suitable for new business forms, and exploring new regulatory approaches such as “sandbox regulation” and “trigger-based regulation.” What are the main considerations behind this?

Zhang Yuzhe: The unprecedented changes in the past century are reflected in the dual uncertainties faced by future industries—technological uncertainty and market uncertainty. Under this background, we need to encourage innovation and development while preventing safety accidents.

How to balance innovation and safety? “Sandbox regulation” involves conducting experiments in specific areas or scenarios; “trigger-based regulation” follows a pre-, during-, and post-logic, not a one-size-fits-all approach—once certain conditions are triggered during the process, regulation is intensified, and similarly after the event. Both methods aim to encourage innovation while avoiding expanding safety risks.

Take the recently popular OpenClaw (commonly called “Lobster”) as an example. It is an innovative product, and many regions are supporting its development, but there are also safety risks involved. It is more suitable for trigger-based regulation. Many risks only become apparent during use; we can predict some risks broadly but find it difficult to pre-empt all specific risks. Pre-emptive regulation might hinder development; more often, regulation during the process enhances resilience—“walking and watching while regulating.”

NBD: During the 14th Five-Year Plan, efforts will be made to cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, and localities will focus on these industries in their layouts. What should be paid attention to?

Zhang Yuzhe: First, avoid “biting off more than one can chew”—rushing into every trend without discrimination. It’s important to tailor strategies to local conditions and focus on key areas. From development direction, resource allocation, to working mechanisms, overall planning is necessary. For resource allocation, including human, financial, and material resources, decisions should follow economic development laws, industry development patterns, and technological evolution, avoiding reckless efforts solely to boost economic growth. The government’s “visible hand” should be used more effectively.

Second, healthy competition among regions can help clarify trends and directions, but it’s important to avoid reckless rushing and to maintain a mindset of “success may not be achieved by me, but success will surely include me.”

Attention should be paid to AI’s negative impacts on employment, income distribution, and public services

NBD: The Outline proposes to fully implement the “AI+” action, strengthen the integration of AI with technological innovation, industrial development, cultural construction, people’s livelihood, and social governance, and seize the commanding heights of AI industry applications to empower various sectors comprehensively. Does this mean AI will usher in significant development opportunities? What role will AI play during the 14th Five-Year Plan?

Zhang Yuzhe: The Outline mentions AI multiple times, aligning with technological development trends and economic laws. AI will be like the steam engine and electricity in the past—an important driving force of the new industrial revolution. As a general-purpose technology, its penetration and enabling effects are crucial, and its development will determine the breadth, depth, and intensity of future growth.

It’s important to view the positive impact of technology on industries and the economy correctly, leveraging rapid technological progress and broad diffusion, while also preventing negative shocks that could cause structural impacts. Only then can we truly enhance the sense of gain among the people.

NBD: To enable “AI+” to play such a significant enabling role in the next five years, do you see any challenges?

Zhang Yuzhe: AI is a general-purpose technology with strong versatility and integration potential across industries, and this is definitely the trend for future development.

One challenge is the maturity of the technology itself. AI is also developing rapidly; currently, it may be transitioning from the incubation to the rapid growth phase. For example, generative AI based on Transformer architecture could see breakthroughs if new architectures or better technical implementations emerge, leading to new changes.

Another challenge comes from society. The negative impacts of AI on employment, income distribution, and public services need attention. AI replacing mid-skilled workers, including the employment pressure on young people, is already evident in many industries internationally. Regarding income distribution, it tends to be skill-driven—those with higher skills accumulate more wealth, while those with less skill may see their incomes decline.