Nexa’s New 2026–2028 Production Roadmap Could Be A Game Changer For Nexa Resources (NEXA)

Simply Wall St

Sat, February 14, 2026 at 4:10 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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In February 2026, Nexa Resources announced its 2025 operating and sales results alongside new 2026–2028 production and metal sales guidance, outlining expected volumes across zinc, copper, lead and silver after a year of lower sales and mixed production performance.

At the same time, the company highlighted strong 2025 exploration and assay results in Peru and Brazil that replenished mineral resources and support potential mine life extensions, underpinned by a US$381 million 2026 capital expenditure plan focused on sustaining and enhancing its mining and smelting operations.

We’ll now consider how Nexa’s medium‑term production guidance, underpinned by resource‑replenishing exploration results, may influence its existing investment narrative.

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Nexa Resources Investment Narrative Recap

To own Nexa Resources, you need to be comfortable with a cyclical, zinc‑focused miner that is investing heavily to stabilize volumes and improve cash generation. The key short term catalyst remains delivering on its production and sales guidance, while the main risk is execution at capital intensive assets like Aripuana and Cerro Pasco. The new 2026 to 2028 guidance and 2025 results do not fundamentally change that risk balance, but they sharpen the focus on near term volume delivery.

The most relevant update is Nexa’s 2026 to 2028 production and metal sales guidance, which points to higher aggregate metal sales volumes at the 2026 midpoint versus 2025’s 567 kt. Paired with a US$381 million 2026 CapEx plan and solid 2025 drilling results in Peru and Brazil, this guidance frames how quickly Nexa might convert exploration success and project spending into tangible volume support for its existing investment story.

But against these volume targets, investors should be aware that execution risk at Aripuana and Cerro Pasco could still…

Read the full narrative on Nexa Resources (it’s free!)

Nexa Resources’ narrative projects $2.9 billion revenue and $150.5 million earnings by 2029. This requires essentially flat yearly revenue growth and a $166.7 million earnings increase from -$16.2 million today.

Uncover how Nexa Resources’ forecasts yield a $7.02 fair value, a 41% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

NEXA 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Before this news, the most bearish analysts were assuming only about 1.3% annual revenue growth and earnings of roughly US$158.8 million by 2029, so compared with the risk that Aripuana’s ramp could cap volumes and keep costs high for longer, you can see how their much more cautious narrative might shift as the new guidance and exploration results are digested.

Story Continues  

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Nexa Resources - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Nexa Resources Narrative

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A great starting point for your Nexa Resources research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NEXA.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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