Monday's relief rally in cruise lines may allow for a better exit in a week or two, Katie Stockton says

Travel & leisure stocks are sensitive to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, so we are monitoring the group closely. Major cruise line stocks are at key support and worth watching for breakdowns in the weeks ahead. We track the broader theme of travel & leisure via ETF-proxy PEJ , the Invesco Leisure and Entertainment ETF. PEJ shows signs of long-term upside exhaustion using the DeMark indicators, suggesting a corrective phase may persist for much of this year. The last signal of this kind was in 2018, marking a cyclical top. The signal reinforces overbought conditions from the monthly stochastics, and the monthly Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is pinched, reflecting weakened long-term momentum behind travel & leisure stocks. RCL , the largest cruise line by market capitalization, is testing weekly cloud support near $265. If RCL breaks this level decisively, it would reverse its cyclical uptrend in a long-term bearish development. What’s more, RCL’s weekly MACD shifted negative last week, increasing the risk of a breakdown despite near-term oversold stabilization. A confirmed breakdown would target a 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $199. CCL tested cloud support just shy of $24 last week, setting up a proving ground. Like RCL, it appears at risk of a breakdown which would complete a bearish double-top formation. Intermediate-term momentum is negative and should overwhelm oversold conditions following the current rebound. Secondary support for CCL is near $20. Fortunately, for holders of cruise line stocks, the daily charts suggest today’s relief rally may keep hold for a week or two, allowing for a better exit. The daily chart of CCL has an oversold upturn, and the daily MACD is on the verge of a ‘buy’ signal, supporting a near-term relief rally. The cloud model and 200-day moving average (MA), near $28.80, is initial resistance. RCL also has initial resistance at its 200-day MA, near $304. The same setup applies to the broader travel & leisure group, so we would see near-term strength as an opportunity to reduce exposure given the deterioration on the charts. —Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. 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