Goldman Sachs Raises 3-4 Month Brent Oil Average Price to $110, Warns High Oil Prices May Persist Until End of 2027!

Why did Goldman Sachs raise oil price forecasts again within two weeks?

Financial Associated Press, March 23 (Editor: Huang Junzhi) As the stalemate in the US-Iran conflict continues, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the second time in less than two weeks. The key reasons are the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the increasing structural risks to global supply, which are all driving their view that “high oil prices will persist longer.”

The bank currently expects that crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at 5% of normal levels over the next six weeks, then gradually recover within a month. However, it is important to note that this ongoing supply disruption, combined with global production concentration and excess capacity, is expected to reshape the market landscape.

The military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran have now lasted over three weeks. To cool the soaring oil prices, the Trump administration is pulling out all the stops. According to the US Treasury Department, on March 20 local time, the US approved a 30-day authorization allowing the delivery and sale of ships loaded with Iranian crude oil and petroleum products. The new license permits the sale of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto ships as of March 20.

Goldman Sachs’ head of oil market research, Daan Struyven, recently warned that, “People are recognizing the risks posed by highly concentrated production and idle capacity, which could lead to structurally higher strategic reserves and long-term prices.”

He expects that in the short term, due to ongoing uncertainties, prices will continue to rise modestly.

“Prices may continue to climb… until the market is confident that long-term supply disruptions are unlikely,” he said, adding that “an increasing risk premium” is needed to curb demand growth and hedge against potential shortages.

Based on this, Struyven now forecasts that the average price of Brent crude oil from March to April will reach $110 per barrel, up from the previous forecast of $98, representing a significant increase compared to 2025 levels.

However, the impact of this upward revision goes far beyond the current market turbulence.

Goldman Sachs also raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast from $77 to $85 per barrel, and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) price forecast to $79 per barrel. The long-term oil price outlook has also been upgraded. The bank states that these adjustments reflect further declines in commercial oil inventories and the re-pricing of effectively idle capacity as the market adjusts to higher risks.

This is the second time Goldman Sachs has raised its price outlook within two weeks. On March 11, Goldman Sachs increased its forecast prices for Q4 2026 Brent and WTI crude from $66 and $62 per barrel to $71 and $67, respectively.

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects the average price of Brent crude oil in 2027 to reach $80 per barrel, but also notes significant upside risks. In an extreme scenario where the Hormuz transportation volume remains severely restricted for a long time, “the daily price of Brent crude could exceed the record highs of 2008.”

“Even in less severe scenarios, oil prices could stay high. Under a ‘severely adverse’ scenario of continued shortfalls in Middle Eastern oil supply, Brent prices could surge and then stabilize around $115 per barrel before the end of 2026,” the bank added.