Bitcoin miners face critical pressure as bullish signals emerge on the network

In recent days, the Bitcoin network has entered an unprecedented phase of structural stress. The current BTC price is at $71.08K, up 3.44% in the last 24 hours, but behind these numbers lies a more complex reality: miners are operating under extreme financial pressure, with quotes approximately 20-25% below their estimated production costs of $89,000-$91,000.

On-chain metrics paint a challenging picture for mining operators. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator has contracted toward 0.2, a level historically associated with extreme fear in the market. When Bitcoin was trading near $110,000 in previous cycles, this indicator hovered around 0.6. This decline reflects how sustained selling pressure has compressed unrealized gains across the network.

When mining profitability hits bottom: squeezing margins and seeking alternatives

Miners’ operational situation has become unsustainable in the short term. With margins narrowing, a significant portion of the mining network is operating at a loss. Many miners are liquidating their Bitcoin reserves to maintain cash flow—a survival strategy that further exacerbates selling pressure.

The network’s hash rate has fluctuated between 980 and 1,150 EH/s, showing how miners are constantly optimizing their fleets amid margin compression and difficulty adjustments in February. Meanwhile, the hashprice remains suppressed around $30-$32 per PH/s/day, leaving profitability for all but the most efficient operators near breakeven.

Interestingly, some miners are beginning to explore AI data center infrastructure to diversify income. This multi-source income strategy could help offset losses from traditional mining operations, marking a significant tactical shift in the industry.

On-chain metrics reveal a turning point: flows shift toward accumulation

Despite persistent stress, key indicators are signaling a potential structural change. The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) has formed a new golden cross above its 90-day average, a configuration historically aligned with early accumulation phases.

Similar crossovers recorded in 2016, 2019, and early 2023 preceded sustained bullish expansions. The current divergence is notable: while in the recent cycle the IFP showed downward trends as Bitcoin corrected from nearly $100,000 during a prolonged distribution phase, now the indicator has turned upward as BTC consolidates in the $68,000-$71,000 range. This dynamic suggests a re-concentration of liquidity into platforms ready for entry, potentially indicating that large investors are beginning to accumulate under these stress conditions.

Bitcoin now hovers near the Realized Price level of $67,900, reflecting a fragile balance between buying and selling forces. This technical point reinforces emerging accumulation narratives amid miner pressure.

The return of liquidity in stablecoins: a sign of institutional capital rotation?

Liquidity dynamics are also sending mixed but potentially bullish signals. The total stablecoin market cap reached $312.95 billion, increasing 0.87% weekly. More revealing: the supply of USD Coin (USDC) grew 9.34% over thirty days, with a current circulation of 78,837,796,603 tokens, indicating a return of available capital on the network.

At the same time, OTC desk balances have sharply declined as institutions withdraw Bitcoin for longer-term holding horizons. This movement, combined with a gradual reduction in selling pressure from miners, is slowly stabilizing spot liquidity conditions.

However, derivatives dominance persists, as spot-to-derivatives ratios remain low, suggesting caution still prevails in the market. The macroeconomic credit tension remains a latent risk that could trigger new liquidations among miners and prolong consolidation phases.

Final reflection

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture. While miners endure nearly nonexistent margins and operate under structural losses, on-chain metrics and flow indicators are suggesting a possible shift in sentiment. The IFP, stablecoin accumulation, and institutional activity point toward a potential phase of capital re-entry.

However, miners’ financial pressure, combined with macroeconomic fragility, keeps the market in a delicate balance. The coming weeks will determine whether these bullish signals can solidify or if structural stress will once again dominate the network narrative.