A Look At AerCap Holdings (AER) Valuation After Earnings Growth Dividend Hike And Buybacks

Simply Wall St

Sat, February 14, 2026 at 4:10 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) has drawn fresh attention after filing its Form 20-F with audited 2025 financials, following a run of recent earnings, dividend, buyback and analyst rating announcements that put capital allocation in focus.

See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings.

Recent news has come alongside a solid run in the share price, with a 7 day share price return of 7.4% and a 90 day share price return of 9.9%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 50.8% and 5 year total shareholder return above 200% point to momentum that has been building over time rather than fading.

If AerCap’s recent moves have caught your attention, this can be a good moment to widen the lens and check out our 25 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks as another way to spot potential opportunities linked to long term infrastructure themes.

With audited 2025 numbers in, a fresh dividend, active buybacks, and a share price near recent analyst targets, the real question now is whether AerCap still trades at a discount or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 2% Undervalued

AerCap’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $153.67 per share, only slightly above the recent $150.43 close, putting the focus firmly on the assumptions behind that gap.

Prudent capital allocation, supported by a strong balance sheet and ongoing deleveraging, positions AerCap to capture opportunities in sale-leasebacks and organic fleet growth as OEM deliveries ramp up, driving revenue and earnings upside while containing interest expense.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a modest premium is justified when earnings are projected to shrink and margins reset lower. The narrative leans on moving pieces across revenue, profitability, and capital returns. Want to see exactly which earnings path and valuation multiple are doing the heavy lifting behind that fair value label.

Result: Fair Value of $153.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on tight aircraft supply and smooth capital deployment. A shift in aircraft availability or credit conditions could quickly challenge that fair value story.

Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can spin up a custom AerCap view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

Story Continues  

A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If AerCap has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other clear, numbers based ideas before the market prices them in.

Target resilience first by scanning companies with strong finances through our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (44 results) and see which names hold up when conditions get tougher.

Hunt for value by checking the 53 high quality undervalued stocks and compare businesses where price still trails fundamentals on key quality checks.

Lock in income ideas by reviewing the 13 dividend fortresses and spot companies pairing higher yields with an emphasis on stability.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include AER.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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