Maersk halts routes through Suez Gulf and Hormuz: new reality of global logistics

The international trade landscape faces unprecedented turbulence with A.P. Moller–Maersk’s decision to suspend operations through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal starting March 1, 2026. The company justified the measure based on deteriorating maritime security conditions and risks to crew safety, redirecting transportation services via the Cape of Good Hope until security assessments allow a safe return to traditional routes.

Security Assessments: Motivations Behind Operational Suspension

This decision does not represent a permanent abandonment of strategic routes but rather a precautionary measure in response to recent military attacks in the region and the high-risk environment. According to Ship & Bunker, the carrier has strengthened protocols for vessels, cargo, and personnel in line with new risk assessments. Operationally, shipping companies activate legal counsel, reinforce protocols with insurers, and coordinate with port authorities to ensure operations remain legally and insurance compliant.

Increased maritime volatility in the Persian Gulf and the Suez Gulf has prompted a reassessment of operational scenarios. Data from Intertanko shows U.S. navigation agencies issued warnings against transit in parts of the Persian Gulf, including the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas, stating that protection for merchant traffic cannot be reliably guaranteed. Experts like Arne Lohmann Rasmussen from Global Risk Management describe the situation as highly volatile, with adaptive navigation underway.

Impact on Routes and Schedules: Detours Add Days and Costs

The alternative route via the Cape of Good Hope significantly extends the Asia–Europe and Middle East–Europe passages. Shippers should anticipate longer delivery times, potential schedule slippages, port congestion, and container availability restrictions in specific export markets, as operations face reduced speeds and altered circulation.

Operational expenses are directly affected: carriers implement contingency surcharges and increase insurance premium calculations linked to heightened risk profiles. Force majeure clauses, route deviations, and vessel security become critically relevant, with booking windows expanding as reliability metrics temporarily decline. Freight performance reflects this dynamic through incremental costs passed on to shippers.

Ripple Effects on Energy Markets: Oil and Gas Under Pressure

Energy analysts highlight substantial exposure if disruptions persist at the Strait of Hormuz. Jorge León, responsible for geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, described the measure as akin to a “traffic halt through the corridor” and warned that prolonged restrictions could intensify pressure on crude oil markets, given that significant volumes of crude pass through this strategic point for global balance.

LNG markets show similar sensitivity to transportation disruptions via the Gulf. According to Rabobank analysis, short-term limitations on regional LNG exports, especially from Qatar, could raise benchmark gas prices if tanker movements face restrictions. The global energy supply becomes subject to multiplier effects as supply chains adjust.

Monitoring Signals: Indicators of Possible Normalization

The environment remains under continuous watch for signs of de-escalation. Experts highlight monitoring signals such as: restoration of routine naval escort, revision of navigation advisories, fluctuations in war risk insurance prices, and carrier communications about reactivating routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.

Any sustained improvement in maritime conditions would likely precede a gradual return to standard schedules and the reversal of detours via the Cape of Good Hope. Normalization in the Gulf of Suez and adjacent corridors remains tied to geopolitical developments and ongoing reviews of international maritime security protocols.

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