Bullish Tesla Analyst Turns Bearish Over AI Concerns, Predicts Stock to Fall to $150

Investing.com - Historically, analyst Trip Chowdhry has issued a strong sell recommendation for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), setting a target price of $150 by 2026 and warning that the company’s AI narrative has collapsed. Tesla’s stock closed at $367.96 on Friday, down 18% year-to-date.

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Chowdhry made a dramatic comparison between Tesla and 3D Systems Corporation (NYSE:DDD), claiming that his firm, Global Equities Research, correctly predicted that the stock would fall from a peak of $84 in 2013 to the current $1.93. In a report to clients, Chowdhry wrote: “The investment thesis based on the TSLA/xAI story is over,” adding, “Waiting for TSLA/xAI to present the next story to drive the stock higher is extremely foolish.”

The firm he works for claims an approximately 85% success rate for its predictions. He challenged investors to provide evidence that Tesla is not an “AI illiterate” and warned against falling into “investment thesis inertia,” which he says misled 3D Systems investors years ago. Chowdhry stated, “Our judgment on DDD was proven correct, and now our judgment on TSLA will also be proven correct,” urging clients to “sell TSLA while they can still profit.”

Wall Street Pressure Mounts

Chowdhry’s bearish outlook has intensified skepticism among analysts regarding Tesla’s valuation and near-term prospects. UBS analyst Joseph Spak recently lowered the Q1 2026 delivery forecast to 345,000 vehicles, down 18% from 421,000 in Q4 2025 and 7% below the market consensus of 371,000, while maintaining a sell rating and a target price of $352.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla from Overweight to Hold in December 2025, with analyst Andrew Percoco setting a $425 target price, citing “high expectations” for AI making the stock “closer to fair value.” Bank of America also downgraded from Buy to Neutral, noting that despite high execution risks, autonomous taxi services account for about 50% of Tesla’s current valuation.

The stock is currently trading at about 210 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, making it the second-highest valued company in the S&P 500. The consensus among analysts includes 23 buy ratings, 17 hold ratings, and 8 sell ratings, with an average target price of $421.27.

Key Points to Watch

Investors should watch Tesla’s Q1 2026 delivery data, expected in early April, to see if demand has deteriorated to UBS’s forecast of 345,000 vehicles or remains closer to the market consensus of 371,000. Management’s comments during the late-April earnings call regarding AI initiatives, autonomous taxi timelines, and profit margin trends will be crucial in assessing whether the company can justify its premium valuation.

The gap between Chowdhry’s $150 target and Wedbush’s $600 reflects unprecedented disagreement among analysts, and the outcome may depend on Tesla’s ability to demonstrate measurable AI revenue and progress in autonomous vehicles beyond narratives and forecasts.

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