Tom Lee's Forecast: Crypto Winter's End Approaching Before April

The current decline in the crypto market may be nearing its end, according to Tom Lee, Managing Partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He expects the second quarter of 2026—specifically around April—to be a pivotal turning point, as several technical and psychological factors indicate the bear cycle is approaching its natural conclusion.

Technical Levels: Near the End

Lee’s assessment is based on in-depth technical analysis provided by timing strategist Tom DeMark, a consultant at Fundstrat. Based on chart patterns, DeMark predicts Bitcoin could fall toward $60,000, while Ethereum may find support between $1,890 and $2,400 as final support levels.

However, current prices—Bitcoin trading at $70,560 with a 2.34% increase and Ethereum at $2,130 with a 2.16% rise—suggest the market has already begun to recover. Lee sees this rally as a sign of exhausted selling pressure, indicating that the last wave of decline might be the final one before a genuine bullish breakout.

Historical Cycle Patterns: A Reliable Guide

Lee emphasizes the importance of studying historical market behavior. In every previous bear cycle, prices followed a similar pattern: sharp contraction, partial stabilization, then a final dip to test support before a strong recovery. He describes this last dip not as a collapse but as a “reset” ending the cycle of fear.

He notes that retail participants often exit their positions in the late stages of the cycle, and their selling tends to complete the actual bottom formation. According to his analysis, the current market structure aligns closely with these documented patterns, strengthening the likelihood of an imminent reversal.

Institutional Role and Public Participation

Despite ongoing overall uncertainty affecting digital assets—including interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions—these factors have not disrupted long-term participation trends. Fragmented activity has contracted compared to last year, but institutional and corporate involvement continues to stabilize and grow.

This contradiction—weak retail base versus growing institutional confidence—is a typical sign in the late stages of a market correction. It reflects a shift in ownership from fearful investors to strategic players.

April: The Expected Turning Point

Lee confirms that April represents the last potential bottom, with a strong likelihood of a new bullish cycle beginning after this period. This outlook is supported by a combination of improving sentiment, waning technical pressures, and reliable historical patterns. According to Lee’s comprehensive analysis, the crypto market is on the verge—or may already be in—the final phase of its current bear cycle, paving the way for renewed risk appetite and upward growth.