Can These 3 Rare Earth Stocks Gain From Iran War Disruption?

Weeks into the war in Iran, many investors have set their sights on oil prices and are attempting to navigate what could be a devastating impact on global energy supplies. But investors who neglect to take a broader view of the war’s implications may not appreciate the potential disruption to the rare-earth and critical minerals market as well. According to estimates by the Iranian government, the country holds more than $27 trillion in mineral reserves. Further, with China continuing to dominate global rare-earth resources, if the conflict draws that nation closer to Iran, it may further disrupt the flow of those resources to the United States and elsewhere.

There are U.S. rare-earth producers operating domestically, but the country has historically relied heavily on imported materials. Notably, the U.S. military announced in late February that securing domestic rare-earth elements is a key national security priority. The companies below may be best positioned to achieve that goal.

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MP Materials’ Strong Infrastructure and Growth Trajectory Put It in a Dominant Position

MP Materials Stock Forecast Today

12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$78.91
50.29% Upside

Buy
Based on 16 Analyst Ratings

MP Materials Stock Forecast Details

There’s a reason MP Materials Corp. NYSE: MP is one of the first names investors think of when it comes to domestic rare-earth operations—this company is the largest producer of these minerals in the entire western hemisphere and is unique in the United States as a fully integrated producer. MP remains a solid Buy with all but one of the 16 Wall Street analysts reviewing shares viewing the company favorably. What’s more, despite climbing by a whopping 115% in the last year, shares could still rise by another 37% based on price targets.

Thanks to military financing and a price floor agreement on rare-earth metals, revenue climbed 10% year-over-year (YOY) in 2025, and the company swung to net income in the final quarter of the year from a loss in the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA improved dramatically as well on a YOY basis for the latest quarter.

A critical advantage that MP has over other domestic producers is its scale. The firm anticipates reaching 6,000 tons in refining capacity by the end of the year, and heavy rare-earth separation facilities are set to be commissioned by mid-year as well. Any would-be competitors have a major uphill battle in the face of this infrastructure edge.

USA Rare Earth’s Advantageous Operations and Government Investment Still Yield High Risk/Reward

USA Rare Earth Stock Forecast Today

12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$34.33
102.62% Upside

Moderate Buy
Based on 7 Analyst Ratings

USA Rare Earth Stock Forecast Details

USA Rare Earth NASDAQ: USAR may have the highest risk/reward calculation of any domestic rare earth firm. On one hand, as of the latest quarter, the company is pre-revenue and had net losses of almost $157 million, with management expecting higher adjusted operating expenses going forward. But on the other hand, the company is rapidly expanding, and those losses are due to major investments in infrastructure buildout and the acquisition of other firms, like Texas Mineral Resources Corp. OTCMKTS: TMRC (announced in early March 2026).

This acquisition, in particular, is notable because it provides USA Rare Earth with sole operator access to the Round Top deposit, North America’s richest known deposit of terbium and dysprosium, two rare-earth elements vital to defense system applications.

Another major advantage for this company is its heavy investment by the U.S. government, which acquired a 10% equity stake in the firm and which should provide much-needed capital and stability in this pre-revenue period. Nonetheless, USA Rare Earth’s fledgling status is important to note, and investors enticed by the prospect of 87% in upside potential should keep in mind that the risk is equally high here.

Energy Fuels Offers Dual Focus on Rare-Earths and Uranium

Energy Fuels Stock Forecast Today

12-Month Stock Price Forecast:
$24.94
48.88% Upside

Moderate Buy
Based on 4 Analyst Ratings

Energy Fuels Stock Forecast Details

Diversified critical minerals producer Energy Fuels Inc. NYSEAMERICAN: UUUU provides a balanced approach to both uranium and rare earth minerals, offering exposure to two essential markets in a single investment. The company is facing top- and bottom-line challenges as well: for 2025, it totaled losses of 38 cents per share, wider than 28 cents per share in 2024.

On the other hand, production is accelerating, and analysts are bullish—the company boosted uranium mining, production, and sales last year, while lowering unit costs YOY and generating $48 million in uranium revenue.

Investors keen to focus on rare earths in particular should keep in mind that Energy Fuels is a nascent rare earth producer. In January 2026, the company announced positive results from a feasibility study for a Phase 2 expansion into both light and heavy rare-earth elements. Energy Fuels could be a company to watch, in particular for its neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide capabilities—NdPr can be used to produce specialized magnets for use in electric and hybrid vehicles.

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