Chart analysts caution not to chase this comeback rally

Chart analysts expect the selling could resume after a short-term bounce. Stocks surged Monday after President Donald Trump said he’s had “productive” talks with Iran , and temporarily called off attacks on any Iranian power plants and infrastructure. The S & P 500 was last higher by 1.2%, though the most forceful response occurred in the premarket when futures tied to the index rallied by as much as 4.1%. But technical analysts expect the rally will be short-lived. The S & P 500 was already oversold after four straight weeks of selling — meaning Monday’s bounce was largely expected even without the latest news on the war — but a troubling breakdown in the longer term trend suggests there’s more downside ahead. “Three of our market internals are oversold, which may allow for a rebound this week,” Katie Stockton, founder at Fairlead Strategies, wrote in a Monday note. “However, we would not chase the rally, noting the preceding breakdown below the 200-day MA increases downside risk for the coming weeks.” .SPX 1D mountain S & P 500, 1-day The S & P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average last week. The technical indicator averages the closing price of an underlying asset over 200 days, helping traders identify longer-term trends. Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler agreed. He said that investors should view the premarket activity as a “relief rally” for now, and should watch key resistance levels at 6,621 at the 200-day moving average, and 6,770 for the 20-day moving average. Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, said he expects that a near-term bounce could bring the S & P 500 back up toward an upper range of 6,900, about 6% above Friday’s close. He pointed out that Wall Street’s fear gauge has failed to spike back above 35 as it did in early March, a sign of abating selling pressure. But he expects that the S & P 500 could fall to 6,175 over the next six months, a more reasonable reset level on an intermediate basis that he said would represent a roughly 12% correction for the S & P 500. With Monday’s rally, the broad market index was last just 5% off its highs. “The S & P 500 is likely at or close to a low,” Wald told CNBC. “I think it’s not necessarily the low.” Over at BTIG, Jonathan Krinsky argued that investors remain complacent. He said that the S & P 500 is “far from washout levels,” with more downside risk to 6,000. That would represent a 7% drop from Friday’s close of 6,506.48. Other major U.S. benchmarks were in more dire straits at the end of last week. The Russell 2000 became the first to fall and close into correction territory . A correction refers to a fall of more than 10% and less than 20% from a recent high. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly joined the small cap index. On Friday, they tumbled more than 10% on an intraday basis from their all-time highs, though they did not close there. On Monday, they came back from those levels.