The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March is 97.4%.

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-20T12:56:33+00:00

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points by March is 2.6%, with a 97.4% probability of keeping rates unchanged. By April, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 14.4%, with an 85.3% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 37.1%.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-20 12:56:33

According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 2.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting a total of 25 basis points by April is 14.4%, with an 85.3% chance of holding rates steady, and a 0.3% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points. By June, the probability of a total cut of 25 basis points is 37.1%.

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