Huaxi Securities: Three Major Price Increase Trends Support the A-Share Market

Western Securities points out that by 2026, the main investment theme will shift from technology to the inflation chain. From the SW primary industry perspective, in 2026, oil refining, coal, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals will lead in gains. Under the influence of geopolitical tensions, the inflation chain market may continue to develop. Regarding imported inflation, focus on the energy chain, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products. Among these, the energy chain has a high certainty of price increases due to geopolitical factors, including sectors such as oil and gas, coal chemical industry, upstream chemical raw materials, and shipping. For non-ferrous metals, small metals and aluminum have a relatively high certainty of price increases, while gold and copper show a mixed pattern of gains and declines. In agricultural products, focus on feed raw materials, fertilizers, and pesticides. Concerning endogenous inflation, pay attention to traditional industries resisting internal competition, including chemicals, steel, coal, building materials, and pig farming. Among these, the chemical sector, driven by rising crude oil prices, has already entered a price increase zone; prices of coal, steel, building materials, and pigs remain low but may recover. Regarding technology-driven price increases, focus on the upstream segments of the AI computing industry chain, including computing infrastructure (servers, computing chips, etc.), storage chips, optical communication and PCB upstream materials (fiber optics, glass fibers, etc.), and power energy.