Today's Market Overview

Chart 1: As mentioned yesterday, the area around 70-69k yesterday marked the first time since the rally began on March 9th that the price retested the lower dense buy zone. This suggests a potential intraday opportunity for long entries at lower levels. Additionally, near 69k, there were two entry setups for long positions—one was a false breakout, and the other was an SFP. The market provided opportunities both times. Although the rebound has been somewhat hesitant, since the 69k entry point remains valid, we can continue to look for upside potential.

Chart 2: From the order book perspective today, it remains similar to yesterday—demand persists below 69k. The sell orders that were hit at 69k yesterday have now been reposted. Meanwhile, sustained sell pressure only appears above roughly 73k to 74k. Since this major trendline has not been broken... (Chart 3: Chart analysts, does this trendline look correctly drawn?)

At the same time, the 60k AVWAP mentioned yesterday and the VAL initiated on March 9th confirm support at 69k. The remaining small positions still leave room for an upward move. (However, it’s still not recommended to enter at current levels.) The next resistance for an upward move could be around 72k. The AVWAP descending from 76k, along with some contract long orders posted there, may need to be unwound.

(The buy wall of contracts from two days ago—currently, there are also several hundred small orders below 72k on contracts.)

Chart 4: Currently near 70k, about 2,000 BTC of short positions from aggressive breakout chasing yesterday are trapped. It’s unclear how many have been closed. During today’s Asian session, the price failed multiple times to break below 70k, which suggests some of these short positions may be closing out, contributing to support. (Short covering equals buy pressure equals support.)

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## Today's Strategy

- **Upside potential**: Continue monitoring around 72k—considering AVWAP, yesterday’s VWAP gap, and potential contract long position break-evens to identify possible entry points.
- **Downside focus**: Keep watching 69k and below.

Today is a **triple witching day for US stocks**—the market direction will depend on US stock volatility.

Yesterday’s ETF flows saw less than 100 million dollars in net outflows, with significant divergence—some funds showed inflows, others outflows. The market remains in a tense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. When divergence is this pronounced, it’s best to avoid guessing the market direction in the middle.