Hang Seng Index Fails to Break 26,000 Points, Under Pressure Amid Geopolitical Headwinds as Market Expectations Battle Intensifies

Cailian Press, March 13 — (Editor Feng Yi) The three major Hong Kong stock indices declined again today, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.98%, the China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.32% and 0.99%, respectively.

【Tech Stocks Short-Term Divergence: Hang Seng Index Rebound to 26,000 Faces Setback】

In the market, most large tech stocks rose today, with Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, and Xiaomi rebounding. Meituan and Kuaishou declined.

In other sectors, gold and non-ferrous metals saw significant pullbacks again, while airlines, military, shipping, and semiconductors also declined.

Among the rising sectors, oil and gas stocks continued to lead, with energy storage, lithium batteries, and telecommunications sectors showing short-term activity.

Overall, the Hang Seng Index’s short-term rebound to 26,000 was thwarted, and market sentiment turned bearish, remaining under pressure. Today’s turnover was HKD 246.542 billion, with liquidity continuing to cool.

On the short-selling front, the total short-selling amount today was HKD 32.89 billion, accounting for 13.34% of the Hang Seng Index’s turnover, indicating persistent bearish pressure.

Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Xiaomi Group-W ranked the top three in short-selling amounts, at HKD 1.775 billion, HKD 1.524 billion, and HKD 962 million, respectively.

【Popular Sectors Decline Broadly Amid Geopolitical Clouds; Market Expectation Battles Intensify】

In terms of market performance, apart from a few hotspots like oil and telecommunications, most major sectors declined today, with the overall decline being larger than that of the advancing sectors. Geopolitical uncertainties continue to weigh on investor confidence.

On the macro front, the previous day’s speech by Iran’s Supreme Leader maintained a tough stance and reiterated control over the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil prices rose sharply, the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthened again, further suppressing global risk appetite.

Due to high inflation concerns, the latest probabilities from FedWatch show that traders have largely ruled out a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. It is now believed that the Fed may only cut rates once in December.

After a decline in US stocks overnight, major Asia-Pacific indices, including Hong Kong stocks, also generally fell today.

However, on the other hand, the short-term Hong Kong market still has some highlights, with the earnings disclosure window and capital replenishment after deep corrections worth关注.

Wind data shows that as of March 10, the net inflow of ETFs investing in the Hong Kong market this year reached HKD 50.449 billion, reversing last year’s net outflow of HKD 21.033 billion, indicating a significant shift in capital flow.

Huatai Securities pointed out that the expectations for AI-related sectors in the Hang Seng Tech Index have nearly adjusted, and the performance of large companies’ earnings calls in mid to late March, along with industry policy implementation, will be key catalysts for sector recovery.

Additionally, the market is closely watching the China-U.S. economic and trade negotiations scheduled for March 15-16 in France.

【A-shares Volatile with Shrinking Volume, Late-Day Dive: Institutions Focus on Profit-Driven Shift】

It is worth noting that A-shares experienced a day of oscillation and adjustment, with a sharp decline at the close. The combined turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.4 trillion yuan, shrinking by 41.6 billion compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,800 stocks declined, with some hotspots repeatedly fluctuating.

Looking ahead, China Merchants Securities analysis suggests that as PPI recovers and overall demand expands, the market is expected to transition from a “second stage of bull market” driven by liquidity and sector favorites to a “third stage” driven by profit and favoring cyclical sectors.

The firm states that investment opportunities will focus on two main themes: one is domestic demand recovery and inflation chain, benefiting from fiscal stimulus, investment rebound, and rising PPI in cyclical industries like commodities and raw materials; the other is long-term strategic and industrial trends, with continued attention to AI, robotics, new energy technologies, and commercial aerospace—representing new productive forces with high growth potential.