【Iran Situation】State Street: If Energy Facilities Avoid Major Damage, Oil Price Could Return to $75 Per Barrel After Middle East Conflict Ends

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-20T10:46:58+00:00

Middle East conflict pushes up oil prices, with Brent crude stabilizing at $110. It is expected to take several months for oil prices to fall back to $75-80, as transportation and production capacity have been damaged. Despite stock market declines, there has been no large-scale capital flight. Lori Heinel remains optimistic about US technology, finance, and utility stocks as well as emerging markets in China.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-20 10:46:58

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Middle Eastern conflict pushes up oil prices; Brent crude futures for May remain steady above $110 per barrel. Lori Heinel, Global Investment Director at State Street Global Advisors, said in an interview that if the conflict can be resolved without significant damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, oil prices will quickly return to pre-event levels, meaning Brent crude could rebound to $75 to $80 per barrel.

Oil prices are expected to take months to normalize

She analyzed that the return of oil prices to pre-conflict levels will not happen overnight, as even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, some ports have already been damaged. Additionally, oil-producing countries may experience delays in resuming extraction, loading onto ships, and transportation.

Therefore, she expects it may take several months for oil prices to normalize, but unless production or distribution capacity is disrupted, there is no reason they won’t return to normal. If they do, a range of $75 to $80 per barrel would be reasonable.

Lori Heinel also pointed out that although stock markets have declined since the conflict began, there has not been a large-scale withdrawal of funds from equities. Instead, there has been a reallocation of stocks, with funds shifting toward more defensive, safe-haven assets. These assets still have growth potential despite concerns that the conflict could slow global growth.

Overweight stocks and optimistic about emerging markets

She stated that the firm remains overweight on stocks, especially large-cap U.S. equities. In terms of sectors, they prefer technology, financials, and utilities, and are underweight consumer stocks. Additionally, they favor emerging markets, with a positive outlook on the Chinese market.

Liu Ninghui, Head of Asia-Pacific Investment Strategy at the firm, believes that China has shown vitality in artificial intelligence (AI), green energy, and manufacturing. The deployment of AI and positive effects of economic stimulus measures have overshadowed the negative impact of the real estate sector.

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