"El Niño" is coming—will it be "super hot" this year?

Recently, topics such as “The next two years may become the hottest years in history” and “The Earth may experience a super El Niño phenomenon” have attracted widespread attention. Many media outlets report that multiple research institutions worldwide predict that a strong El Niño may occur later this year, disrupting global climate. This could not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, leading to record-high temperatures this summer and next.

In response to these societal concerns, reporters interviewed experts from the National Climate Center for analysis.

It is too early to definitively say that a “super El Niño” will occur this year

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from various domestic and international climate models, the National Climate Center’s analysis indicates that the La Niña state is nearing its end and will soon transition to a neutral state. The sea surface temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific are expected to continue rising, and by late spring, an El Niño condition may develop.

Liu Yunyun, director of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, explained that, historically, there is about a one-in-three chance that an El Niño will develop in the year following the end of La Niña. Different climate models around the world predict varying timings for the onset of El Niño, with the earliest possible in April and the latest in late summer or early fall. Predictions differ significantly among models.

For example: The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April; Australia predicts May; Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June; U.S. experts’ voting forecasts range from July to September.

Overall, the likelihood of an El Niño developing in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific in the second half of this year is relatively high, but it is still too early to accurately predict its specific onset time and overall strength. Currently, results from multiple international climate prediction models show significant discrepancies, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Experts advise: view climate prediction information rationally

Chen Lijuan, chief expert of the Climate Prediction Office at the National Climate Center, pointed out that El Niño events are often accompanied by an increase in global average temperatures. However, the magnitude of warming and the manifestation of extreme weather depend on the strength and type of El Niño, as well as regional climate responses, which require further monitoring and assessment.

Currently, discussions on social media about “hottest years” and “extreme weather” are lively, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context. Experts recommend the public:

• Rationally interpret prediction information, especially since the specific timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Niño still require dynamic monitoring and forecasting;

• Pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative agencies rather than extreme statements based on single points in time;

• Stay alert to weather warnings in advance and prepare accordingly. Agricultural producers should plan farming activities reasonably, and urban managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power supply, water supply, and transportation.

More insights in the news

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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon occurring in the tropical Pacific with a cycle of 3 to 7 years. It is a natural variability of the climate system. ENSO phases are generally indicated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in a fixed region of the tropical central and eastern Pacific, measured by the deviation from the climate average.

• If the 3-month running mean SST remains above 0.5°C for five consecutive months, it indicates a warm phase, called El Niño;
• If it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it indicates a cold phase, called La Niña;
• If the SST fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

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