Oil Prices Enter Three-Digit Era? Goldman Sachs Warning: May Sustain Above $100 for the Long Term, Even Breaking 2008 Peak

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-20 09:24:40

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Goldman Sachs stated on Thursday that the risks to oil prices remain tilted upward in the short term and through 2027. The bank added that the recent sustained large-scale supply shocks highlight the possibility of oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel.

On Thursday, Iran attacked energy facilities across the Middle East in retaliation for Israel’s attack on its South Pars gas field, causing benchmark Brent crude to surge above $119 per barrel, marking a sharp escalation in the three-week-long conflict. The war has led to widespread shutdowns in Gulf countries.

Goldman Sachs said its baseline forecast assumes oil supply will gradually recover starting from April, with Brent crude prices falling back to around $70 per barrel by Q4 2026. However, the bank warned that long-term risks remain high due to the Iran conflict and uncertainties over when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

Goldman noted that if capacity is damaged, supply constraints could persist longer; but if OPEC deploys remaining capacity after the recovery, production could increase.

The bank stated that disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz would be the largest in history, analyzing the persistence of production losses in the five biggest supply disruptions over the past 50 years. Its baseline assumes oil production will return to normal within four weeks of full reopening, but it also highlighted significant downside risks to long-term supply, especially from Iran and offshore oil production.

Goldman said that in the short term, as long as oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, prices could continue to rise. It also pointed out that if the disruption risk persists, Brent crude could surpass its 2008 peak. Brent hit a record high of $147.50 per barrel in 2008.

Finally, Goldman added that if expectations of U.S. export restrictions increase, the spread between Brent and WTI could widen further.

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