【Iran Crisis】Saudi Arabia: If Energy Supply Disruptions Continue Until Late April, Oil Prices Could Soar to $180 Per Barrel

Foreign media reports indicate that Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the Persian Gulf, is urgently assessing oil price trends. If the Middle East conflict-induced energy supply disruptions continue into late April, international oil prices could soar above $180 per barrel.

Saudi officials stated that after gradually depleting pre-war inventories, physical supply shortages will intensify over the next week. Oil prices may initially approach $138 to $140, then reach $150 by mid-April, and further climb to $165, or even $180.

High oil prices may change consumer behavior

Although these figures seem like huge gains for Saudi Arabia, which relies heavily on oil revenue, officials are more concerned. High oil prices could prompt consumers to significantly cut back on oil consumption, potentially leading to long-term behavioral changes and triggering a global economic recession, further impacting oil demand. Excessively high prices might also cause Saudi Arabia to be labeled as “profiteering from war” in this conflict that it did not initiate.

Umer Karim, a researcher specializing in foreign policy and geopolitical analysis, said:

“Saudi Arabia generally does not want oil prices to rise too quickly because it causes long-term market instability. The ideal scenario for Saudi Arabia is a moderate increase in oil prices while maintaining stable market share.”

Tensions with Iran remain unresolved, the Strait of Hormuz shipping is nearly halted, and the global oil market is experiencing intense volatility. Brent crude futures surged to $119 per barrel this Monday. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie warned that reaching $200 per barrel by 2026 is not impossible.

The rapid rise in oil prices has also triggered risks of demand weakening. Analysis shows that when Brent crude hits $150, consumers and businesses will start reducing usage. U.S. gasoline prices have risen to $3.88 per gallon, up from $2.93 a month ago, and diesel prices have surpassed $5, increasing transportation and manufacturing costs, further squeezing household and corporate spending.